One state, many CM aspirants: Varun Gandhi won't have an easy ride in UP

Motherly affection perhaps got the better of political calculations when Union Minister and BJP leader Maneka Gandhi said at a felicitation programme in Pilibhit that her son Varun Gandhi would have been a very effective chief minister of Uttar Pradesh. The occasion was informal, the tone was soft but the impact was resounding as the mother’s desire soon grabbed headlines and became a talking point in the BJP, albeit informally.The felicitation programme was organised by the Varun Gandhi Youth Brigade. “There is a BJP government at the Centre and a Samajwadi Party government in Uttar Pradesh. Ever since the BJP won the Lok Sabha elections, Samajwadi Party president Mulayam Singh Yadav has stopped all development works in the state. He wants to humiliate the BJP MPs by his mean action. We would have initiated development works if there was a BJP government in Uttar Pradesh as well. And it would have been wonderful if Varun was running the BJP government in the state. It would also have been great for Pilibhit. You wait for one year and see how it happens, how the development of roads, power and schools starts,” Maneka said. [caption id=“attachment_1649227” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Varun Gandhi (L) and Maneka Gandhi. Image courtesy ibnlive[/caption] Though her tone was soft, and expressed in a light-hearted manner, a BJP leader said that it had the intended impact. Which was to “set the cat among the pigeons”. It was delivered in such a manner that she couldn’t be accused of violating inner party democracy or speaking out of turn but at the same time she made all concerned realise that Varun Gandhi was in the reckoning for the leadership post for BJP in Uttar Pradesh. After all, she has been a seven-time MP and is a minister in the Modi government. The issue of leadership in Uttar Pradesh has remained vacant since Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh moved up to the top in the party hierarchy and Kalyan Singh had been in and out of the party. The Maneka pitch for Varun, well in advance (Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections are scheduled in 2017) raises two questions. Has Varun taken a leaf out of Narendra Modi’s style whereby he raises the public pitch on the leadership issue to such an extent that the party leadership is forced to acknowledge his presence? Overt ambition was so far derided and considered a demerit for the simple reason that it was believed that Indian society at large accepted only those who would pretend to be humble and keep underplaying their ambitions, even saying ’no’ for public consumption while simultaneously lobbying hard for the position. Modi’s stupendous success has proved that Indian electorate has become mature enough to accept a leader with high ambition, as long as he is seen as hard working, honest in his intent and seen to be competent to live up to the popular expectations. The second question is whether Varun will have the ability to defy the popular mood against the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty. There can’t be two opinions that the Gandhi surname has helped him climb up the ladder, faster than his peer group in the party. At 34 he is the youngest party general secretary, having held charge of party affairs in Assam and West Bengal. But then he and his mother have pitched themselves as victims of the Gandhi family’s succession line. In 2009 parliamentary elections Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi campaigned against Varun in Pilibhit and in 2014 when he moved to Sultanpur, right next to Amethi and Raebareli, Priyanka Gandhi made some very harsh comments against him. There have been many comparisons between Sultanpur and Amethi during the elections and on the fate of the two cousins. While Rahul’s victory margin was severely curtailed, Varun won his elections handsomely. His supporters claim that the young BJP general secretary has tried to project himself as a “warrior” fighting twin battles. First, against wrongs committed on him and his mother by his own family and secondly, to prove that he can be a genuine youth leader. He has built a fan following of his own, both within and outside the party. The problem for him though, as his critics in the party including some senior leaders say, is that he is too much of a solo player. He relies less on working through established organisational structure and works through his own independent links. Varun supporters admit that he makes too many personal initiatives and occasionally works independently of the party. However they claim that these have never been in contradiction of the party line or to the official structure. They say that it in fact only makes his politics more durable in nature and help him establish a direct connect with people. But the Uttar Pradesh BJP is a faction ridden house. There are too many leaders and too many aspirants for the top post. An unexpectedly high scoring in the parliamentary elections, 73 out of 80 seats, has suddenly fired the imagination of many in the party. Varun Gandhi has a certain impact among party workers and had been drawing good crowds to his public rallies. Though his equations with Narendra Modi and Amit Shah have not been ‘great’, they are said to be “good and improving”. It would not be easy for Varun to get himself named as the BJP’s chief ministerial candidate when Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections are announced in 2017. There are some other serious contenders, whose claim in terms of experience, in organisational set up and in the government would be much more. Till Amit Shah was elevated to the post of party president, as an obvious reward for his performance in Uttar Pradesh as general secretary in-charge, he was being counted as a surprise contender for Uttar Pradesh chief minister’s post. Amit Shah belongs to Gujarat but that does not stop him from adopting Uttar Pradesh as his new permanent domicile state. After all, Modi now represents Uttar Pradesh. If that happens it would be for the first time that a serving national president would be named as chief ministerial candidate of a state, that too outside his home state. Former Madhya Pradesh chief minister Uma Bharti is another serious contender for the position. Bharti has now made the Bundelkhand region of Uttar Pradesh her home. She was elected as MLA in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly before she won the Lok Sabha polls this year. Bharti is now entrusted with the task of cleaning the Ganga river. She already enjoys the strong backing of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh and would get a boost if she is able to make a tangible difference in the Clean Ganga drive. This is Modi’s hugely publicised and cherished project. Then there is Kalyan Singh. He has refused the Governor’s post, so that he could angle for chief ministerial position if an opportunity comes. But age could become a hindrance for him as he is 82 already and by the time elections are held he will be 85. The list of possible Uttar Pradesh chief ministers within the BJP does not end here. To move on, Kalraj Mishra could be another contender. He has been the Brahmin face of the party in Uttar Pradesh for long. He has also been made a minister in the Modi government but has a relatively lightweight small and medium enterprises portfolio. Will he have the appetite to bounce back? The current state BJP president Laxmi Kant Vajpayee too could claim to be rightful claimant to bask in glory. After all he could argue that he had been the state president when BJP humbled everyone—Mayawati, Mulayam and Gandhis—in Uttar Pradesh. But his problem is that the the credit has gone to Amit Shah and has been duly rewarded, to be youngest BJP president.