Omar Abdullah wants delayed polls in J&K, but has little support

Srinagar: The Election Commission is likely to conduct polls in Jammu and Kashmir in late November or early December despite reservations expressed by Chief Minister Omar Abdullah and his party, the National Conference. Omar had recently warned that if the elections were held on time there would be “zero percentage turnout” in Srinagar, and its adjoining areas that saw unprecedented floods. However, all other parties in the state, including the BJP, disagree with him.

“The state capital anyway had less than optimum turnout in elections. Tomorrow, when zero percentage turnout will happen in Srinagar, who will you blame for that? You certainly can’t blame me. Because I am not the one who is pushing for elections. You have to blame those people who are trying to hold elections,” Omar said in New Delhi after meeting with Home Minister Rajnath Singh.

The devastating floods in Kashmir valley last month left at least 285 people dead and rendered thousands of people homeless. Around 25 assembly constituencies, including eight in Srinagar city, were severely effected. Relief and rehabilitation work is still on in these areas.

But political observers say it is better to have political governance in the state then the governor’s rule, no matter how effective the rehabilitation process.

“It seems the state administration has given the feedback to Election Commission that elections should be held on time. If they are not, there would be a vacuum, which may not be a good political choice,” Rekha Chowdhry, a professor of political science at Jammu University told Firstpost.

“If there is a change of guard, the new government would be inheriting problems of current dispensation, there are already allegation of corruption against it in the handling of relief material. I think it is appropriate to hold the elections then have Governor’s rule,” she added.

It is a view echoed by renowned International Relations and Kashmir expert Professor Amitabh Matoo, presently heading the Australia India Institute in Melbourne. In an email interview to Firstpost, Matoo said, if the Election Commission goes ahead with holding the elections on time, it would be a timely, “well thought out decision.” Although counter-intuitive, it could prove to be persuasive.

“Perhaps it is a time for a change and for ensuring the most inclusive of elections," he said.

The state, Matoo said, has to now be rebuilt with a vision and its people rehabilitated with dignity and given hope.

“We cannot afford to have Governor’s rule - however effective it may be but which has no accountability whatsoever- or continue with a government that legally will have outlived its tenure in January, but has already lost all moral legitimacy,” he said.

But, if the EC decided to hold the elections on time in the wake of the devastating floods, the voter turnout mostly in Kashmir region, will be effected severely.

“Srinagar is completely devastated there has already been a precedent of voting percentage remaining low, now if the elections are held in November, I don’t think Srinagar would witness one percentage of voting,” Ajaz Ahmad, a political scientist based in Srinagar, said.

“Even in the villages where voting percentage would normally remain high as compared to Srinagar, there is every possibility it would be low if polls are held in November or December,” he added.

The Omar Abdullah government will complete its six-year term on January 19, 2015. If the Election Commission decided to defer the elections paving way for Governor’s rule in the state, it would be least supported by a majority of the political parties in state.

The BJP’s state unit, which wants an early election in the state, is banking on the anti-incumbency factor against the Omar government and the pro-Modi wave in Jammu to sweep the Jammu region. It also believes the tough response adopted by the Indian government on the Pakistani ceasefire along the International Border and Line of Control in Jammu would benefit it.

Chief spokesperson for the People’s Democratic Party, Nayeem Akhtar, said the National Conference wants the elections to be delayed as they are facing the anger of the people for failing to deliver and would like Governor’s rule in the state to buy time.

“But the democratic process should not be derailed, their argument is that relief efforts and rehabilitation process would be derailed, but there ability to deliver is highly questionable. No one in the state takes them serious now,” Akhtar said.

“Kashmir presently needs a long-term plan for rehabilitation and the present government even lacks the skill for that,” he said.