Numbers game: Why a mid-term poll looks more likely

“There is no question of a mid-term poll. The Union government will last its full term.” That was Environment Minister Jayanthi Natarajan, looking to compensate with manufactured, wide-eyed indignation for what she manifestly lacked in conviction, in response to a question on whether the Congress’ drubbing in the Assembly election had rendered a mid-term election inevitable. Heading a lame-duck government, and living in mortal fear of one’s recalcitrant allies, may not seem a particularly gratifying way of staying alive. But given the down-and-out state that the Congress finds itself in - where, given the overwhelming mood of anti-Congressism, it would be trounced in a general election today - the best that it can hope to achieve is hobble along for the next couple of years. This at least lets it live to fight another day. But as it turns out, even the luxury of a lame-duck life may be beyond the Congress. [caption id=“attachment_239020” align=“alignleft” width=“380” caption=“The Trinamool Congress could be willing to part ways with the UPA. AFP”]  [/caption] Among allies and regional parties that would love to see an early election are Trinamool Congress, Samajwadi Party, the Akali Dal and AIADMK. Neutral, but not against the idea of a mid-term poll, would be the BJP, Biju Janata Dal, Sharad Pawar’s NCP and the Janata Dal (U) of Nitish Kumar. Ranged clearly against a poll now would be the Congress, the DMK and the Bahujan Samaj Party. Already, the firebombs from the Congress’ biggest (and most troublesome) UPA ally, the Trinamool Congress, have gained in intensity. Barely a day after the results came in, Trinamool leader and Railway Minister Dinesh Trivedi, stated the obvious fact that the political momentum for a mid-term election was picking up. The Trinamool, he said at a forum hosted by the Indian Express, “may … be happy to have a mid-term poll now rather than two years later.” That sentiment in favour of mid-term elections was more widely shared, he added. “Why only TMC? I feel (that) after yesterday’s result… if I was the Samajwadi Party, I would be very happy to have a general election tomorrow so I can increase my tally because I have the momentum.” If there was a perception that the voters’ mood in the Assembly elections reflected an anti-Congress sentiment, even the BJP, Trivedi said, would want an election now. “If everybody wants an election, there will be an election.” A day later, however, Trivedi was looking to dial back his remarks, claiming that he had articulated them in an academic, apolitical context, and that he wasn’t speaking on his party’s behalf. But no one is convinced by that claim. Trinamool leader Mamata Banerjee may have come across as a rabble-rouser who is picking a fight with the Congress at every turn, even though her party is a constituent of the UPA. But she is merely building up for a big-enough cause on which to abandon the Congress, walk out of the UPA – and perhaps force a mid-term election. A politically inept, tone-deaf Congress is certain to provide her many such reasons for a divorce. Didi calculates that her party’s best interests lie in going it alone in West Bengal in the next general elections. That would free it of the taint by association with the discredited Congress, and since the latter has been reduced to complete irrelevance in the State, and with the Left Front still nursing its wounds, she perhaps reckons that the Trinamool can sweep the elections, particularly if they are held early, and secure 30 or more seats, against the 19 it holds. Expect more firebombs from her in the coming months, perhaps decisively lethal this time around. The Samajwadi Party too has much the same calculation in mind. Extrapolating from its sweep of the Assembly elections, it can hope to improve vastly on its 22 seats in the event of a mid-term election – and perhaps secure as many as 40-50 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats from the State. That alone gives it an incentive to bring down the UPA government . For exactly the same reason, Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party, which has 21 Lok Sabha seats, will not be keen on an early election. And for that reason, it may even consider offering support, particularly if the Samajwadi Party withdraws support from the outside that it had extended. A sweetener for such a deal could see the slowing down or withdrawal of the CBI cases against her and her ministers on charges of corruption, which were always only a political instrument to browbeat her. In Tamil Nadu, another of the ‘big States’, which sends 39 MPs to the Lok Sabha, Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK, which holds [caption id=“attachment_239026” align=“alignright” width=“380” caption=“Jayalalithaa is also hopeful that she will be able to sweep all the seats in the state in the event of mid-term polls. Reuters”]  [/caption] only nine seats, has a stake in early elections. The DMK, the scandal-tainted constituent of the UPA which stands discredited in the State, secured 19 seats in 2009, and will continue to prop up the Congress-led government. But Jayalalithaa reckons that in the event of an early election, she can make a clean sweep of the 39 seats in Tamil Nadu (plus one more in Pondicherry). In the context of her recent 64th birthday celebrations, she openly said that she expects her party workers to “gift“ her 40 seats in the next Lok Sabha elections. Curiously, however, the BJP is perhaps the one major national party where there is a dissonance about a mid-term election. As the recently Assembly elections revealed, the party has not been able to improve on its vote share and seats tally, even in a politically significant state like Uttar Pradesh. Even so, most segments in the party will likely reckon that the BJP will be the natural beneficiary of an anti-Congress wave at the national level, of which there are more than adequate signs. And if it fashions together a cogent alliance, by bringing in the AIADMK and others, it perhaps stands a reasonable shot at regaining power as the head of an alliance. But, ironically, there is one significant hurdle to the BJP’s readiness to push for early elections – and that comes in the substantial form of Narendra Modi. Although he has himself never articulated it openly, Modi is a frontrunner as the BJP’s candidate for prime ministership, but he would prefer that the general elections be held after the Gujarat Assembly elections in December this year. If the BJP returns to power in convincing fashion in the State, his candidacy, which still faces pockets of resistance within the party and the broader alliance that it heads, will be vastly strengthened. An early election would deny him the chance to prove yet again his hold on the State. Even so, if a mid-term election is forced upon the country by the early exit of a UPA constituent, and the Congress’ inability to support from elsewhere, the BJP, and Modi, will likely embrace the opportunity with vigour, perhaps without projecting any one leader as a prime ministerial candidate. The odds of an early election, thus, revolve around the political calculations of current and future UPA allies. For now, there is just way too much incentive for the Trinamool Congress and the Samajwadi Party, who literally own their respective states, to bring down the tottering government. All it will take for that to happen is an accident. And on that count, you can be sure that the Congress, and its inept leaders and motormouth spokespersons, will deliver. On that count, this isn’t just a lame-duck government. This is a government whose goose is well and truly cooked.