No leadership, falling support: Is it end game for Lalu and RJD?

Patna: Fighting the toughest battle of his political career spanning over four decades, RJD chief Lalu Prasad had done all he could to get a favourable verdict today. On the advice of his astrologer he had chosen the most auspicious time to reach the airport yesterday. He was at the Patna airport at noon, a good two hours before the scheduled departure of the flight to Ranchi. Prior to that he had visited his Danapur-based cowshed, offered prayers there and then sought blessings from a special cow by touching her feet. He believes this cow is his good luck charm. All of this, obviously, was of no use. The CBI court found him guilty in the fodder scam. Legal experts say he may be slapped a jail term between three and seven years.   [caption id=“attachment_1142711” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Lalu Prasad was sent to jail by the court today. AFP[/caption] The mighty Yadav has been nailed. Any chance of his wriggling out of the situation through political manipulation is closed after Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi’s open denouncement of the ordinance passed by the government to circumvent the Supreme Court ruling on convicted leaders. Lalu loses his House membership. The implication of his conviction, however, runs much deeper. He would likely be in jail when his party – the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) – will be fighting a battle for survival. The general elections are due mid-2014 and the assembly elections in Bihar are scheduled for the year after that. The party’s mascot won’t be present to plead its case before the electorate which is getting increasing restless for a regime change. The RJD had hoped to make big political gains from the growing disenchantment of the masses with the Nitish Kumar-led JD(U) government. There have been hints in the air that the popular mood is swinging back in favour of the party, particularly after Nitish broke his 17-year-old alliance with the BJP. The RJD candidate had won with a thumping margin over the ruling party candidate in a parliamentary bypoll a couple of months ago. Enthused by it, Lalu had started chalking out grand electoral plans for the party. After the CBI court verdict, everything comes back to the starting line for the RJD. Lalu has not allowed a second line of leadership to grow in the party apprehending threats to his position. A few days ago, there was a discussion within the party to elect an acting president or even form a committee of leaders to run the party in case Lalu is sent to jail, but nothing came off it. Now the RJD stares at a leadership vacuum. It is still unclear who would lead the party in his absence, a family member or a senior leader. There’s some tension in the party already and there are hints of factionalism. Even if the party manages the leadership question in some way, there is the bigger challenge of keeping the party’s support base intact. The Muslims and Yadavs constitute the primary vote banks of the party. Of the two, Yadavs are more loyal to Lalu, but in his absence chances are that they would veer towards the BJP. The latter has already started efforts at chipping away at the Yadav vote base. The community has scores to settle with Nitish Kumar and would not vote for a party that is not likely to make a major impact in the elections. The Narendra Modi factor could drive the Muslims to support Nitish. So both the BJP and the JD(U) stand to gain from the split in the RJD’s support base. Also, there is the question mark on whether the Yadavs would accept anyone other than Lalu or his family members as their leader. If they don’t, the RJD faces disintegration. It’s interesting that of the total four RJD members in Lok Sabha, three are from the upper caste Rajput community, who include former Union Minister Raguvansh Prasad Singh. Singh is ahead in the leadership race now. He allayed the fears on the future of the party today, saying RJD was a party of “kisans-mazdoors” and “each and every soldier of the party will be taking the party fight to the masses in the absence of Lalulji.” Another party MP Prabhunath Singh, too, said they had nothing to worry since whenever Lalu had gone to jail, the RJD makes a brilliant bounce back, putting up strong performances. “I personally wish that if Laluji is sent to jail even for one-two months, the RJD will win all the 40 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar,” Singh had told yesterday. The coming days would make clear how such show of confidence travels down the support base. While going to jail in the fodder scam last time, Lalu had handed over power to his wife Rabri Devi while his two brothers-in-law helped her out. This time, however, Rabri Devi has opted out of the race while his two grown-up sons who are well into active politics too have expressed “unwillingness” to lead the party right now.