No BJP wave in the South, Jaya’s kingmaker chances diminished too

For the south, the most conspicuous post-poll result is that there is no Modi wave, but the BJP is likely to record some gains. The real story is about the possibility of a spectacular victory by Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK, Congress doing reasonably well in Karnataka and Kerala and the party getting decimated in Seemandhra. [caption id=“attachment_1489609” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  PTI[/caption] Moreover, in Telangana, it’s the TRS which would pocket the benefits of the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh, while in Seemandhra, it’s the YSR Congress, and TDP in partnership with BJP. The picture in Tamil Nadu is about the AIADMK, as a single party contestant, gaining strength progressively since electioneering began. According to the CNN-IBN-CSDS survey, the party has a voteshare of 39 per cent in the post-poll survey. This is seven per cent more than the pre-poll estimate. In comparison, the DMK has only 26 per cent. The most striking thing in Tamil Nadu is the contraction of the BJP allies’ voteshare from 22 percent in pre-poll surveys to 16 in the post-poll survey. This points to the fact that the allies and the BJP haven’t benefited from their individual voteshares, clearly showing that there is no BJP or Modi wave in the state. If there was one, it should have generated a synergistic advantage for the alliance. Instead, the BJP-front seems to be losing. This is, however, only the average spread, and hence in select pockets, where the alliance partners have a stronghold, some of their candidates are likely to win. IBN-Lokniti predicts 22-28 seats for AIADMK, 7-11 for DMK and 4-6 for the BJP and its allies.The Times-ORG poll gave Jaya 31 seats while the ABP survey said AIADMK would win only in 22 seats. Although the AIADMK hasn’t gotten close to its target of 39 seats (all the seats it contested), 22-28 is a formidable number. However, these numbers will be of value only if the NDA falls short of an absolute majority. As all surveys except one indicate,  the NDA is likely to form a government on its own and hence might not require the support of AIADMK. In such a situation, what bites the dust is not only the prime ministerial ambition of Jayalalithaa, but also the possibility of her bargaining for power and influence in Delhi. The AIDAMK can only pray that the NDA might fall short of a few numbers, as one of the surveys indicated, and Jayalalithaa can chip in after extracting her pound of flesh. For the time being, it looks unlikely. Only one survey has predicted the NDA not getting an absolute majority. In Telangana, it’s clear that the future of the state will be decided more by the TRS than a TRS-Congress combine. The Congress’s electoral intent in the newly formed state failed big time. In Seemandhra, as expected, it’s completely decimated while the YSR Congress and the TDP and BJP are projected to emerge equally victorious. Interestingly, the BJP is slated to gain in a game played by the Congress. According to the IBN-Lokniti poll, The TRS will win 8-12 seats in Telangana while the Congress will manage 3-5. The BJP is likely to win 2-4. In Seemandhra, YSR Congress and the TDP and BJP combine are likely to get 11-15 seats each. According to Times Now-ORG, the TDP-BJP alliance will win 17 seats in Seemandhra. The two exceptions in the south are Karnataka and Kerala because in both the places, the Congress will hold out reasonably well. In Karnataka, however, the BJP is gaining back its lost ground. While Congress is projected to win 12-16 seats, the BJP looks equally strong and is projected to get 10-14. The JDS will get 1-3 seats. The Times Now-ORG survey gave the BJP 18 seats. Going by the earlier projections and the trend in the last assembly elections, the Congress should have done better, but apparently the Yeddy factor and perhaps some Modi wave, that was missing in the south otherwise, seemed to have worked for the BJP. In Kerala, the Congress is holding on to its 2009 results despite the scams and administrative deficiencies that marred the Oomen Chandy government, primarily because of a possible anti-LDF sentiment. The implication of CPM leaders in the murder of TP Chandrasekharan and the earlier internal strife within the party could have contributed to its debacle. The Congress led UDF might win more seats not out of its own strength, but because of the negative sentiments against the LDF. While the IBN-Lokniti poll gave the UDF 11-16 seats, the Times Now-ORG poll projected a tally as high as 18. So, as a whole, the South’s projected electoral behaviour is not surprising except for the fact that Jayalalithaa’s chances of playing kingmaker - for the moment based on most of the survey results - are diminished.