Nitish Kumar's M,Y vote banks under threat: SP threatens mutiny, MIM could eat into Muslim votes

It’s not just the NCP threatening to walk out of the alliance that is bothering Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar as he prepares to face off with the BJP is what could be a close election in Bihar later this year. For the Grand Alliance, led by Nitish’s Janata Dal(United), there’s are mounting threats to the Muslim and Yadav vote banks that the alliance is banking on. SP on the warpath After the NCP threatening to walk out of the alliance if they weren’t given as many seats as they wanted, it’s now fellow Janata Parivar member Samajwadi Party that is protesting the fact that it hasn’t been given any seats to contest from. [caption id=“attachment_2397050” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Nitish Kumar in a file image. Facebook image[/caption] “SP played the biggest role in bringing Kumar and RJD chief Lalu Prasad together, as well as, forging the secular grand alliance. But, in turn it has been completely ignored. We were not even consulted during seat distribution. We have started indefinite fast to protest this treatment meted out to us,” SP Bihar unit president Ram Chandra Yadav said. Fifty-one state party leaders are participating in the indefinite fast and Yadav said “it will continue till either grand alliance gives the party its rightful share or SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav gives specific directions on the issue”. “Our leader Mulayamji did so much for creating this grand alliance. We accept that SP is a smaller party in Bihar, but the way we have been treated in seat distribution shows the arrogance of bigger parties like JD(U) and RJD,” the chief of the state unit of hte party said. Yadav also said he would request Mulayam Singh Yadav to forge alliance with Left parties and NCP and contest all 243 Assembly seats in Bihar if the party remains ignored by the grand alliance. As per the current seat sharing agreement within the alliance, JD(U) and RJD will contest 100 seats each, Congress will contest 40 seats and only three were left for NCP to contest. Despite the state unit’s bluster, the Samajwadi Party isn’t exactly a dominant force in the state. While it stayed out of the race in the general elections last year, it’s performance in the last state elections wasn’t exactly stellar. In the 2010 polls, the party contested in 146 seats but won no seats. 0.55 percent share of valid votes polled in state and 0.92 percent in the seats that it did contest. However, the last thing Nitish Kumar may want is a split in the Yadav vote bank that he’s allied with one-time foe Lalu Prasad Yadav for. The MIM factor The All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen is another worry for the grand alliance. The party that has been expanding beyond its Hyderabad bastion since the 2014 general election is likely to be in the fray as well and could jeopardise multiple seats where Muslim voters can influence results. Muslim voters constitute about 17 percent of the total voters in the state, and could influence the results in 60-70 seats as per estimates . Asaduddin Owaisi, the party’s lone MP, on Sunday launched the party’s scathing attack targeting pretty much every other political party in the state. Owaisi claimed that chief minister Nitish Kumar was only interested in improving his own constitutency in a typically vitriolic speech on Sunday. It was also his first visit to the state. “Both Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad are responsible for backwardness of Seemanchal region and exploitation of the people… an injustice has been meted out to you all,” he said. He also announced that former RJD legislator Akhtarul Iman will contest from Kishanganj as the party’s candidate. The JD(U) for now is going with a now familiar claim made by rivals of Owaisi being a ‘BJP agent’, but  an Indian Express report pointed out that of 24 seats in the Seemanchal region, 10 are Muslim-dominated ones. A JD(U) leader told the newspaper that Owaisi “does have appeal” and could “disturb equations”, due to which they have communicated their worries to the party leadership. A Deccan Herald report quoted unnamed sources as saying that the party intends to field 25 candidates in the districts of Araria, Kishanganj, Purnia and Katihar where Muslim voters can influence results. The AIMIM has seen a rise in its fortunes outside Hyderabad with the party winning its first ever seat in Maharashtra in the 2014 polls and the party also looking to gain ground in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. For Nitish, the party’s rise in the state could mean a dent in the Muslim vote bank that he’s banking on to return to power.