Narendra Modi will be happiest if Rahul Gandhi becomes Congress president

Rahul Gandhi memes abound in cyberspace but my favourite is a video clip. What makes it gold standard is that it is not a caricature but from a media conference held on 16 May, 2014, when Sonia and Rahul arrived to accept their defeat in the Lok Sabha elections. It was the day Congress received a historic drubbing at the hands of BJP, sinking to an all-time low of 44 seats. The mood was sombre, even tense. Rahul, who appeared first, delivered a few platitudes and quickly left the task of explaining the defeat to his mom. As soon as Sonia started talking in all earnestness — perhaps still coming to grips with the enormity of the loss — a beaming Rahul faced the camera with a slightly embarrassed smile, looking like a little cherub. His innocence must have been a reflection of the times when Adam and Eve frolicked in the Garden of Eden before mistakenly biting the proverbial apple.

In a poignant piece, my colleague Akshaya Mishra opines that BJP should be worried now that Congress is set to elevate the Gandhi scion to party president’s post. I beg to differ. For my money, if the coronation does go through in June as is being speculated, the man who will be the happiest at this development is one Narendra Damodardas Modi. An ABP-Nielsen survey done in January this year reveals what we already knew, that Modi is by far the most popular leader. What’s interesting is that not only is he miles ahead in terms of leadership from his nearest competitor, he’s also the most popular leader among those who preceded him. The survey finds that 32 percent respondents think of Narendra Modi as the best Prime Minister of India after Independence, followed by Indira Gandhi at 23 percent and Atal Bihari Vajpayee at 21 percent. Only nine percent have voted in favour of Jawaharlal Nehru. While we must take into account the obvious generation bias that these polls suffer from, it’s still staggering that in terms of popularity, Modi seems to have eclipsed some of India’s tallest leaders since Independence. Pitted against such an adversary, Rahul expectedly comes a distant second. According to the opinion poll, 58 percent respondents consider Modi to be the most popular leader in the country. Rahul follows with 11 percent approval while Arvind Kejriwal and Sonia Gandhi get four percent each. Mamata Banerjee, with three percent of the popular vote, rounds off the top five. The decision to anoint The Reluctant Prince as party chief is aimed at maintaining the clear command structure within Congress so that insubordination and revolt from within can be avoided. The problem with such a defensive step that aims more to keep the flock together rather than meet the challenge head on is that does little to improve the morale of grassroots workers and even leaders who in private frequently complain of being saddled with The Prince who can neither be swallowed nor dispensed with. For a perennial apprentice thrust into the ‘poison’ of power by a doting mom who would love nothing more than to see her beta succeed to the throne; for a man who has presided over Congress’s worst crisis since it was founded over a century ago; for a man who frequently looks like a deer caught in the headlights of repeated failures, Rahul presents a picture of forlorn hopelessness and rest assured, Modi would love nothing more than to be pitted against him. The 2014 General Election and subsequent Assembly polls have proved that the BJP does best when it takes on Congress in a one-on-one fight. Rahul’s ascension, therefore, will present another chance for Modi to flex his muscle against a moth-eaten brand that resists all repackaging efforts. Speaking to NDTV, former Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister and long-time party loyalist Digvijaya Singh recently admitted that Rahul is at a disadvantage against Modi because “he doesn’t have the gift of the gab.” “The difference between Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi is that Modi has got the gift of the gab,” Singh told NDTV. Asked if Rahul lacks the skill, he said, “Even Indira Gandhi was never a great speaker, even Jawaharlal Nehru. But Indira Gandhi and Nehru had the vision — when they spoke, everyone listened. As far as Rahul is concerned, he is developing.” It remains to be seen how long Rahul takes to become “fully developed” but until that promised day arrives, his political opponents will only be too happy to see him run India’s grand old party to the ground. For BJP, however, Rahul’s anointment carries an added bonus. It is reasonably sure that 2019 General Election will be a royal battle between Modi and regional chieftains. With Rahul as the president, Congress will baulk at the suggestion of playing second fiddle to a regional satrap. That may lead to a further fracturing of the anti-incumbency votes. In his avatar as the Congress president, therefore, Rahul could turn out to be Modi’s biggest ally. Will the Gandhi scion bring acche din for Modi?