Mutiny aboard and home alone: DMK’s double jeopardy ahead of polls

The DMK has rarely been in a situation worse than this before, that too right before an extremely crucial Lok Sabha elections.

Barely a few months to the polls, it still doesn’t have an ally that can help shore up its chances against an apparently formidable AIADMK, and on top of that it has to face the mutiny of MK Alagari at home. Both the DMK and party chief Karunanidhi’s successor MK Stalin might appear dismissive of Alagiri, but still this is something that they would have wanted to avoid. Handling fraternal war in a family run party definitely takes some energy.

Alagiri’s tantrums are nothing new, but this time, he is apparently nasty. Reportedly he told his father that he was making a wrong choice in Stalin because the latter would die in 3-4 months. Whether it was an angry swear or a direct threat to his life, Alagiri appears to have touched a raw nerve in the patriarch. He got agitated, anxious and wanted the older son out even as Stalin appeared to be philosophical about life and death.

While Alagiri chose to keep quiet when the media followed him, his son Durai Dayanidhi was critical of Karunanidhi and even made fun of Stalin’s threat perception. Responding to reports that Karunanidhi has written to the PM asking for extra security for Stalin, he told an English news channel in apparent jest that what Stalin perhaps wanted was “military security” since he already had  Z+ cover. Durai Dayanidhi also said that he was present  when his father met Karunanidhi and such a threat to Stalin’s life never happened.

The electoral threat from Alagiri to the DMK will be minimal because Stalin had planned the transition very well over the last few years. Alagiri’s writ doesn’t run in the southern districts any more, which he once held as his personal fiefdom, and the organisational network is now controlled by Stalin.

But the threat from him will be as an irritant, as a source of political blackmail and also as a tool that rivals could manipulate to embarrass the DMK’s first family. He is expected to make some announcement on his political future on Thursday as his supporters and family are celebrating his birthday. In Dravidian politics, birthdays are among the occasions when the leaders and cadre indulge in show of strength.

More than Alagiri, the DMK will soon have to sort out its ally issue. The DMDK, that the party has been openly wooing, is still not too sure if it wants to join with the BJP or the DMK. The Congress, so far completely unsolicited by anybody, is not wanted by the DMK. Without the DMDK or the Congress, the DMK is not poll-worthy. Ideally, it should be both in its camp because DMDK alone wouldn’t seriously add considerable margin.

The DMK had face rout-situations in the past too. In 1984, 89 and 91, it struggled. While it managed two seats in 1984, in 89 and 91, it couldn’t win even a single seat. Its fortunes plunged again in 1998 when it managed barely five seats. Under the present circumstances, the party is in a very vulnerable situation - because of a strong AIADMK - although there is no post-Rajiv Gandhi assassination type wave against the party. It will need healthy voteshare from allies, an orderly carder and a calmer household atmosphere because after all DMK is a family party.

Many observers still feel that this Alagiri phase too will pass and he will come back to the party after lumping the fact his political survival will mean accepting Stalin’s leadership.

Meanwhile, Stalin’s focus will be on fixing the alliance and making its state conference in Trichy next month a grand success. Elaborate arrangements, including the construction of a massive venue, are currently underway. It would be the real campaign kickoff for the DMK.

By then or before that, Alagiri too is likely to organise his own version of a show of strength - possibly a rally and public meeting - to restrain his father from expelling him. If expelled, he has very limited options and the party, which is already in a critical low, is not likely to lose much.