Mullaperiyar: Is there now light at the end of the tunnel?

For the first time since the Mullaperiyar dam agitation began, moderate voices from within the state have dented the seemingly united and hardline stand of Kerala on the politically inflammable issue. In a letter to the Prime Minister, the leader of the Mullaperiyar Action Council, that has been agitating for the last five years demanding replacement of the 116-year old dam with a new structure, has reportedly made a dramatic climb-down. Instead of a new structure, the letter said, halving the height at which water is being diverted from the dam to Tamil Nadu will be sufficient to address the threats of safety to the old dam, the council said. The letter, which created quite a flutter in Kerala late on Sunday, apparently has been written by the Chairman of the Mullaperiyar Action Council with the silent backing of the agitated farmers in the southern districts of Tamil Nadu who are the beneficiaries of the dam. The central logic of the new proposal is that at present water is being drained from the dam at 104 ft. By reducing it to roughly 50 by constructing a new tunnel at that height, the level of storage can be brought down considerably. In simple words, the proposal requests Tamil Nadu to store less water in Mullaperiyar and regularly divert more to the state. At present, Tamil Nadu draws water based on its needs. [caption id=“attachment_165472” align=“alignleft” width=“380” caption=“Mullaperiyar Dam. Wikimedia Commons”] [/caption] Interestingly, the same argument has also been advanced by known environmentalists in the state. Reports suggest that this proposal might bring the sparring states to the discussion table. The Tamil nationalist parties and farmers might be open to discussing the idea. However, political leaders in Kerala, including the outspoken Water Resources Minister PJ Joesph and local MLA, rejected the idea outright. Immediately on their feet, they said there is absolutely no going back on the demand for a new dam. Another leader of the Action Council also joined them and said the letter did not represent the aspirations of the agitating local population. He claimed that the purported author of the letter, CP Roy, a former college professor and highly respected activist, has clarified his position and was still leading the agitation. On the same day in Chennai, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalitha urge Prime Minister, who is on a visit to Chennai, to ask Kerala to back out of their demand for a new dam and to agree to raising the water level in the dam from the current 136 ft to 142 ft. The timing of the appearance of the letter and climbdown by the Chairman of the Action Council appeared to be mysterious. The Council has just completed five years of its agitation and relay fasts. What are the circumstances that led to this sudden voice of moderation, that too after throwing the state of Kerala into a crazy tailspin of fear, sub-nationalism and victimhood? Here are the top five: 1. There is increasing dissent in the state to the dominant and absolute view that a new dam is the only solution. The people behind this middle-path were cautious in expressing their opinion earlier because of the chances of being targeted for acting against the interests of the state. 2. The tough position taken by Jayalalithaa, who was very calibrated in her response to the loud cries of protest from Kerala. Add to that the volatile Tamil nationalist parties clearly indicated that Tamil Nadu will never agree to a new dam or a new agreement, which probably dictated Jayalalithaa’s tough stance. 3. The two member team, that visited the dam site last week at the instance of the Supreme Court to conduct scientific inspections on safety, did not seem too responsive to the rants of Kerala. In fact, the two technical experts nominated by the state government to accompany the team walked out alleging partiality. 4. The economic blockade of Kerala, the disruption of traffic across the borders and the organised animosity towards Keralites in Tamil Nadu have started hurting the state. 5. The present dam and the associated agreement ensure that Tamil Nadu draws water at its will. In the case of a new dam, as proposed by Kerala, Tamil Nadu will not have the legal right to draw water, but can only receive water at the will of the former. This makes tremendous political difference, that too in a state like Tamil Nadu which has several chauvinistic outfits looking for causes. Meanwhile, there is an apparent lull in the doomsday prophecies on the dam in Kerala. The argument that if earthquakes and safety are the real reasons for concern, then the bigger threat should be to a bigger dam downstream, which is closer to the quake-sensitive areas, say environmental activists in the state. Additionally, how can a new dam be justified in a quake-prone area? This, in fact, echoes Tamil Nadu’s stand. The new proposal will indeed throw a spanner into the wheels of agitation if Tamil Nadu is smart enough to seize the opportunity. It will also be a hook for the Centre to hold on to. However, the CPM-led opposition in Kerala, which has missed no opportunity to heap all the blame on the ineptitude and partisan approach of the UPA at the centre, will not easily let the Mullaperiyar plank slip off. The new proposal could not have come out of thin air: the withdrawal of the public agitation by the Congress at the instance of the Prime Minister two weeks ago; the meeting between Union Minister Vayalar Ravi, a senior Congress leader from Kerala, and Vaiko; and several back channel conversations between different stakeholders in the two states are suggested as possible reasons. Chief Minister Oomen Chandy, who has been consistently tempered in his approach on the issue, might use this opportunity to calm the situation and perhaps close it for ever. But his biggest test of endurance will be how to manage a political loose cannon —Water Resources Minister Joseph whose only agenda on water management in the state seems to be a “new dam”. On Sunday, he accused the letter as a diversionary tactic to weaken the Mullaperiyar agitation. His party, the Kerala Congress, which represents the interests of the politically significant Syrian Christians and its astute leader KM Mani, will also be hard to please.