Mulayam's chances are zero: it's either UPA-3 or NDA-2 in 2014

The man to watch is Mulayam Singh Yadav. On Thursday, the Samajwadi Party (SP) leader appeared before the media with Telugu Desam and Left leaders in tow to announce the holding of a non-Congress, non-BJP meeting on Friday to break the Parliamentary logjam. The BJP has been blocking the functioning of the two houses till the Prime Minister resigns over the coal blocks allocation scam. There is, of course, no possibility of that happening. The broader impact of Mulayam Singh’s announcement was not lost on observers. Even as he continues to support the Congress-led UPA, he is making covert plans for a Third Front comprising regional parties which look most likely to make some gains after the next general elections. However, the Third Front idea is DOA. Given the arithmetic of the current Lok Sabha and even the possibilities in the next one, there can be no Third Front government without the Congress or the BJP – unless both parties see a dramatic decline with seats falling below 100-120 for each of them – an unlikely prospect for now. This is almost the exact point made by LK Advani in his controversial blog some time ago. [caption id=“attachment_436526” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Mulayam Singh Yadav. AFP.[/caption] This is what Advani wrote in his blog (read here ): “My own view is: (i) The shape which national polity has acquired in the past two-and-a-half decades makes it practically impossible for any government to be formed in New Delhi which does not have the support either of the Congress or of the BJP.  A Third Front Government, therefore, can be ruled out; (ii) A non-Congress, non-BJP Prime Minister heading a government supported by one of these two principal parties is however feasible. This has happened in the past also. But, as the Prime Ministership of Chaudhury Charan Singh, Chandra Shekharji, Deve Gowdaji and Inder Kumarji Gujral (all supported by Congress), as also of Vishwanath Pratap Singhji (supported by BJP), have shown, such governments have never lasted long.” In the next Lok Sabha, it is only scenario 2 painted by Advani ( a minority government supported by either Congress or BJP) that can at all benefit any Third Front leader, whether it is Mulayam Singh or someone else. Coming back to Singh’s current efforts to recreate the scaffolding for a future Third Front, it is clear that the only way he can become PM is with the Congress supporting him from the outside. But why would the Congress do that? For starters, the parties he has started out with – the Left and the Telugu Desam – are both declining powers. The Left will gain a few seats in Kerala and lose an equal amount (if not more) in West Bengal, and so the numbers will not add up to more than they are now. Telugu Desam is slipping badly in Andhra – with Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSR Congress likely to make gains at its expense in Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema, and the Telengana Rashtra Samiti in Telangana. So it will probably fare worse than it did in 2009. Mulayam Singh is thus leaning on two losers. His best chances are thus not related to the Third Front, but with a depleted Congress. Here’s the math : Currently, the Congress and BJP hold 320 seats between them (206 for Congress and 114 for BJP). Assuming that the Congress loses 50 seats and the BJP gains only 10 seats in the next elections, the two parties will, between them, still have 280 seats. A clear majority. So, no non-Congress, non-BJP government is ever going to be possible unless at least one of the two has a catastrophic fall that takes their seats below 100. But this isn’t the only point. Any government headed by Mulayam Singh will not get the support of Mayawati – who is sure to get at least 20 seats in Uttar Pradesh, come what may – unless the Congress and Mulayam have a seat-sharing arrangement to divide UP between them. But in that event, one can’t rule out a covert Mayawati-BJP arrangement, too. And if Mulayam Singh and Sonia Gandhi have a seat deal between them, why would Sonia agree to make the former PM? Take Congress, BJP and BSP out of the equation, and no government is possible since it means taking out more than 300 seats in a Lok Sabha with 545 seats. In fact, even 245 wouldn’t be the real number of the Third Front, for any government supported by the Left will never entice Mamata Banerjee. The Third Front is a pipe dream. Conclusion one: There can be no Third Front without Congress or BJP support. Conclusion two: If no government is possible without Congress or BJP, the logic of not letting either of them lead a coalition makes no sense. This means UPA-2 will have to be succeeded either by UPA-3 or NDA-2. Conclusion three: Since it is widely assumed that a BJP headed by Narendra Modi will not be able to aggregate an NDA with a majority, the chances are the NDA will have to be either led by a compromise BJP candidate (Arun Jaitley, Nitin Gadkari), or the Grand Old Man of BJP, LK Advani. Conclusion four: Given the mercurial nature of most of India’s potential Third Front powers – Jayalalithaa or Mamata – it will be highly unstable. The chances of a Nitish Kumar heading it are about as bright as a Mulayam Singh. My own betting is this: Mulayam Singh and Nitish Kumar have no chance to make it to the top job, unless Congress or BJP fall below 100 seats in the next elections. That looks highly unlikely at this point in time. Barring a dramatic reversal of fortunes, we are going to see UPA-3 or NDA-2 in 2014.