More bad news for the Congress: Owaisi's MIM could rob the Muslim vote in Delhi

New Delhi: If the Hindu right wing has been a big worry for the Congress so far, here comes the threat from a cadre-based Muslim party. After delivering the Congress a crippling blow in Maharashtra, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) is now toying with the idea of contesting in Delhi. Even if it decides not to however, its presence is likely to impact the way the community votes. This, as the results of the last few elections reveal, could work to the detriment of the Grand Old Party and the advantage of the BJP. No wonder, behind closed doors, Congress leaders believe that there’s a covert understanding between the MIM and the BJP. [caption id=“attachment_1806333” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  PTI[/caption] When the Hyderabad-based All India Majlis-e- Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) decided to contest the Maharashtra assembly elections, political pundits, and the Congress, didn’t read much into it. But by the end of it, the AIMIM or MIM had left a lasting impression on the political arena. The party led by their firebrand leader Asaduddin Owaisi had done better than the Raj Thackeray led Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) to win two seats. “We did not fight the Lok Sabha elections because we didn’t want BJP to have an advantage, but here it was a multi-cornered contest,” said Owaisi. “My aim is to see Muslims, Dalits and the oppressed classes get their due in the political system,” he added. What was even more impressive for the MIM was that it managed to win 0.9 percent of the total votes polled while fielding only 24 candidates in the 288 member Maharashtra assembly, an average of over 20,000 votes per constituency it contested. It also finished second on three seats while coming third in another eight seats. With Owaisi expressing his intent to expand the base of his party in North India, alarm bells are ringing in the Congress camp. “The BJP gets support of MIM in Maharashtra and now MIM will be contesting in Delhi. Who will gain if MIM fights in Delhi? Obviously BJP!” commented senior Congress leader Digvijaya Singh on Twitter. A look at Delhi’s political scenario will make clear why the Congress is worried. The party currently has only eight seats in the 70-member Delhi assembly. The victory in these seats was largely due to Muslim votes - half of Congress’ elected MLAs are Muslims. Twelve seats in the 2013 assembly election were decided by a margin of 2000 or less votes. The Congress is banking heavily on the “minority” vote which form a sizeable 25 percent of the voters in almost 10 seats of the state. “All I can say is that there is a need for secular forces to come together to keep the BJP at bay,” says Sandeep Dikshit, National spokesperson for the party. What could turn the tables for the BJP is the possible entry of MIM in these seats, as this would eat into the traditional vote of the Congress. In seats where the Congress candidate is not in a direct fight with BJP, this vote is likely to shift to AAP. So even AAP has its task cut out if Owaisi decides to throw his hat in the ring. The Congress and the MIM are already at loggerheads after the Maharashtra verdict, Sushil Kumar Shinde’s daughter and Solapur City MLA Praniti Shinde has openly called for a ban on the party accusing them of being “anti-national”. “What Owaisi can do for BJP, no one can as they are both flip sides of the coin,” said a senior Congress leader on condition of anonymity. “He will give fiery speeches that will polarize voters. That helps BJP to consolidate the Hindu vote while the Muslim vote will split between Congress, AAP and MIM,” he added. The party remains in wait and watch mode as the MIM is yet to make its position clear on whether it will formally take the plunge by contesting elections in Delhi. The emergence of MIM on the political scene is not just a reflection of the unfulfilled aspirations of the minority community, but also puts the Congress in the dock for mere “tokenism”. Owaisi does have a point when he says that the myth of the “Muslim vote bank” has been busted after the 2014 general elections. Whichever way one interprets his rise, it gives an interesting new twist to the communal-secular divide in Indian politics and puts the Congress and other parties which have long taken Muslims for granted on notice.