Money, money, money: Why Shiv Sena can't afford to cut ties with the BJP

While many theories are floating over the Shiv Sena’s role in post poll alliance with BJP, it seems that not going with the BJP will hardly do any good for the Sena. Uddhav-led Sena will suffer its first setback in Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) as BJP is likely to pull the plug if it forms the government on its own. [caption id=“attachment_1761919” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray.[/caption] Currently, BMC is ruled by the Shiv Sena-BJP combine with the Sena as the major partner. The annual budget of over Rs 31,000 crore of the civic body, believed to be the richest civic body in Asia, is larger than many small Indian state government budgets including Goa, Himachal Pradesh, Utttarakhad, Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh and others. BMC is the Shiv Sena’s main source of generating party funds and retaining control over the political affairs in Mumbai. The civic body has 227 seats with 115 seats required to prove majority. Currently, the Shiv Sena has 75 seats and the BJP has 31. Both of them together have been ruling the BMC for nearly 20 years. According to the power sharing agreement between the two, the Shiv Sena keeps the Mayor’s post and the all important Chairman of the civic standing committee while the BJP gets the post of the Deputy Mayor and a few other civic committees. A section of leaders in the Shiv Sena have mixed opinion over the post-poll alliance scenario with the BJP. A few Sena leaders feel that BJP may withdraw support given to the Sena if the latter gets absolute majority. Speaking to Firstpost, a senior Sena leader said, “We are aware of the BJP’s dreaded plans. We feel BJP will withdraw the support from the civic body.” In case of a hung assembly, the leader added, that they weren’t sure whether to extend support to the party which broke a 25-year-old alliance with them. “Since the decision will have a direct impact at the Centre-level and at the BMC, we will have to consider all aspects,” he added. BJP leaders in the state are of the view that if they cross the 120-seat mark in the assembly and are in comfortable position to form the government without Shiv Sena’s support, only then it would pull the plug on the Sena. “Because of the Sena, we are not able to increase our base in Mumbai. So, we will have to take the decision strategically keeping in mind the central leadership’s plan to expand the party base in the city and the state,” a BJP leader said. Realizing that the BJP may choke the saffron party by pulling out of the BMC, the Sena is now preparing a contingency plan. In case the BJP abandons the Sena, the latter is planning to work it out with the Raj Thackeray-led Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) that has 27 seats in BMC. While there have been no official talks between the two estranged brothers, sources said that both Uddhav Thackeray and Raj Thackeray were looking to keep an open mind about future dialogues post October 19. Incidentally, the MNS on Thursday supported a Sena proposal to extend the deadline of an amnesty scheme for paying water bills in the city. The BJP opposed to the extension demanding an explanation from the civic administration but the MNS came out in support of the move that was mooted by the Shiv Sena. Ahead of the assembly polls, Raj Thackeray had revealed that the MNS leaders were trying to get in touch with the Sena leader but Uddhav Thackeray did not respond. The MNS is likely to support the Shiv Sena not just in Mumbai but other local bodies like Thane and Kalyan-Dombivli if BJP pulls out from these bodies.