Modi rally in Jammu today: A BJP wave, but Cong-NC has slight edge

On Wednesday, the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi will address a rally in Jammu in Hiranagar, one of his 185 ‘Bharat Vijay’ rallies across the country. In Jammu, the impact of Modi’s second rally here in four months would be far more significant than is apparent. Jammu goes to vote on April 10 followed by Udhampur on April 17. [caption id=“attachment_142862” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Modi in Jammu during his previous rally here. Firstpost[/caption] Going by the historical standard in Jammu, the BJP has enjoyed an unexpectedly strong Modi wave in the region, one that has survived, until now at least, the onslaught of an aggressive campaign by the National Conference and its coalition partner the Congress. For now, however, it appears that the sudden wave of support for the BJP may not be enough to wrest the two Lok Sabha seats in the Jammu region, although the Assembly elections that follow later could swing heavily in favour of the BJP. Four major parties –  NC, PDP, Congress and BJP – are fighting for the six Parliamentary seats in the state of Jammu & Kashmir. While that may be a small number, the results of this Lok Sabha election could decide the future course of politics in the state. The National Conference, fighting in alliance with the Congress for the Lok Sabha election, has left the PDP no choice but to warm up to Modi, thought it has been doing so with caution. If the BJP manages a comeback in Jammu in the Assembly elections, it could be the PDP’s only shot  at occupying the highest seat in the state. PDP supremo Mufti Mohammad Sayeed recently stopped short of announcing that he would align with the NDA following the Assembly elections, when he said that former prime minister Atal Behari Vajpayee’s tenure was a golden period for Kashmir. Vajpayee remains a popular figure among the masses in the Kashmir valley too. A seasoned politician, Sayeed knows that if his party has to come back to power in the state, the NDA could be an option, since it appears that he has failed to convince the Congress to part ways with the National Conference. However, an alliance with the BJP can be stitched up only after the Assembly elections – any pre-poll alliance could miff the domestic constituency as Modi is still seen by many as an anti-Muslim leader. Mufti’s shout-out from Kashmir for the golden period of Vajpayee’s tenure was answered by senior BJP leader Arun Jaitley in Delhi on Monday with the latter saying the BJP would address the concerns of the people of the state through ‘insaniyat’ (a humane approach). Jaitley also said that during the past few days, he had read statements of various political groups in the valley suggesting that the NDA government had been more sincere about addressing the issues of Jammu and Kashmir than the UPA government. “Most of these groups are ideologically opposed to the BJP. Why then should they be more optimistic about the BJP’s sincerity on the issues of Jammu and Kashmir?" he said. Interestingly, it is development – not religion – which is turning into the big election issue. Needless to say, the BJP would like to be win the two Parliamentary seats in the Jammu region. It might not help their national tally or their Mission 272, but it would be a hugely symbolic victory. In Kashmir, however, its chances remain bleak. And that explains why the party has confined itself to the Jammu region for the LS elections. The Jammu-Poonch parliamentary seat, with its 1.76 million voters, is the largest among the six Lok Sabha constituencies in the state. Congress has won the seat eight times previously. But Modi’s rally on Wednesday could give a renewed boost to BJP candidate Jugal Kishore Sharma. Congress leader Madan Lal Sharma is seeking a re-election for the third time while BJP’s Jugal Kishore Sharma, a sitting legislator from the Nagrota Assembly constituency, is hoping a strong Modi wave could turn the tide in his favour. The caste factor plays an important role in deciding the winner in Jammu-Poonch Lok Sabha seat but this time around the developmental concern is high on the agenda. And on this the BJP candidate could prove to be weightier. Madan Lal, although a popular leader, is facing a strong anti-incumbency factor and would be hoping that the support of the National Conference proves to be a turning point for him. When Lal reached the office of the Returning Officer to submit his nomination papers he was flanked by Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, his Deputy Tara Chand and J&K Pradesh Congress Committee president Saif-ud-Din Soz. IN 2009, he had registered a thumping win, defeating the BJPs Lila Karan Sharma by 1,21,373 votes. The Congress MP knows well that this time his re-election is fraught with difficulties. So both the National Conference and Congress are campaigning hard for him. There is one more candidate who could dent both the Muslim and Hindu votes in the Jammu-Poonch seat. That is Yashpal Sharma, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate who has recently attracted large crowds at his rallies. What makes Yasphal a threat for the ruling coalition and the BJP is his ability to attract voters from both the communities. The BJP has earlier faced difficulties in finding winnable candidates in Jammu. The Modi wave may have galvanized the cadre but the selection of a candidate involved a long tug of war among leaders. Then there is the Udhampur Lok Sabha seat where the battle between Congress stalwart Ghulam Nabi Azad and Dr Jitender Singh of BJP would be closely watched. Before Azad made his decision to fight from here it was a one-sided game in favour of the BJP. After filing his nomination papers, BJP’s candidate Dr Jitender Singh said his party would conduct a probe into the Rs 25,000 crore Roshni Scam in Jammu and Kashmir. “Probe would be held into Rs 25,000 crore Roshni scam and it would be our top priority,” Singh said at a public rally in Doda district. The Comptroller and Auditor General had recently estimated Rs 25,000-crore land transfer scam in Jammu and Kashmir, called the Roshni Scheme, making it the biggest ever such scandal in the state. It is now one of the scandals associated with the ruling coalition. Although it would be close fight between BJP and Congress here, Azad is facing a revolt of sorts from Congress workers. Worse, the majority of political workers opposing Azad are from his own constituency, Baderwa. Around 70 lakh voters in Jammu and Kashmir, including 3275241 female voters and 58279 service voters will be exercising their franchise in these polls in state.