Modi meets Lalu's brother-in-law: Is he eyeing Yadav votes in Bihar?

It has been a long time since Anirudh Prasad Yadav aka Sadhu Yadav made news. His words once were the law in Bihar. He and his cronies were feared. He ran a parallel darbar in Patna and loved to call his official residence there 10 Janpath. He could only be tamed by an affectionate reprimand by his benefactor duo, sister Rabri Devi and brother-in-law Lalu Prasad Yadav. The downfall of the Lalu-Rabri regime in 2005 in Bihar left him without clout but he managed to enjoy some importance as an MP. Though Lalu had started restricting him by then, he continued to play smart. By 2009 parliamentary elections, he and Lalu had fallen apart. He switched sides and was soon picked by Rahul Gandhi to fight on a Congress ticket. The Congress strategists thought he was a big catch. Bereft of his Jija’s (Lalu) support, Sadhu lost the parliamentary elections badly. Lalu, on his part, started promoting his sons and daughter. For the last four-and-half years, Sadhu was in virtual oblivion. He is back in the headlines now after visiting Narendra Modi at his office in Gandhi Nagar this morning. He called it an extended “courtesy call”. Sadhu was in Gujarat on a pilgrimage, Dwarka Darshan. The timing of the meeting between a not-so-holy Sadhu and the BJP’s presumptive prime ministerial candidate, Modi, is interesting. Sadhu is in desperate need of a fresh identity. Having spent over four years in the Congress, he realises he has no future in the Grand Old Party and the party itself has no future in Bihar. Modi, on his part, is not really averse to being favourable to him so long as he displays the ability to bringing votes to the party. Porbandar MP Vitthal Radadiya is a case in point. [caption id=“attachment_1039451” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Narendra Modi in this file photo. AP[/caption] It’s no secret that the BJP’s performance in Bihar is important for Modi. Given his bitter equations with Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, it is not only about winning seats. Modi met Sadhu at a time when there is a strong possibility of a trial court in Ranchi pronouncing Lalu guilty in the fodder scam. The Supreme Court has rejected Lalu’s plea for change of court and consequently grounded all hopes of his supporters of a delay in the verdict, of whatever kind. Speculation on his fate abounds in political circles in Bihar, within and outside of RJD. The immediate fallout of an adverse verdict for Lalu would be that he would stand to lose his Lok Sabha seat, as per the recent Supreme Court directive. Second, if he goes to jail he would not be allowed to contest next parliamentary elections. The RJD being a personality-centric party may have great difficulty in steering through the rough and tumble of electioneering in his physical absence from the scene in Patna. Though Lalu held his last rally in Patna to project his two sons, Tejashwi and Tej Pratap, they are yet to show any real sign of being capable of a bigger political role. There was a strong possibility of Lalu staging political comeback in 2014 elections. The chances of the RJD chief being convicted in the case throw up three important questions: would he make Rabri Devi the leader of the party the way he had in 1997 - he was faced with an arrest warrant and jail term then; would he chose someone with a strong Yadav community backing to lead the party in his absence; how would his Yadav and Muslim support bases vote. While there is complete clarity that Muslims could vote strategically to defeat the Modi-led BJP, the Yadavs would remain a problem area. Sadhu’s courtesy call thus becomes politically significant. There is a feeling among many that the numerically dominant Yadavs, who tested power and enjoyed the perks of identifying with the ruling class for 15 years, would not want to be out of the reckoning for long. Their single-point hostility against Nitish Kumar is also clear. Already, there exist a possibility that they might vote for the BJP in areas where the RJD is not strong enough to defeat Nitish’s JD(U). This possibility sharpens even further should Lalu is sentenced to jail. The BJP already has Nand kishore Yadav as Leader of Opposition in the Bihar assembly. Sadhu could be useful in tilting the Yadavs towards the BJP. It is still early to arrive at a conclusion but very often in politics exchange of courtesies behind closed doors change political courses and equations. Modi will go to Bihar for Patna for a big bang Hunkar rally after Dussehra on 27 October. The political fault lines would be clearer then.