Message of polls: Different states, different scripts for success

By Mahesh Rangarajan

India’s political map changed colour as ruling and opposition parties swapped places in three major states. Kerala and Tamil Nadu have a record of such a changeover several times in the past. But to discern a pattern beyond that, it is best to look at the specifics in each case.

Most far-reaching was the end of 34 years of Left Front rule in West Bengal as arch rival Mamata Banerjee secured a three-fourths majority. A tidal wave swept away the once invincible Left Front. Just five years ago, it had won a two-thirds majority on the slogan of industrialising the state. But the land acquisition issue in Nandigram and then Singur proved its undoing. As much as the violence, it broke the spell the Marxist party and its allies had on the peasantry and the small holders who had voted for it loyally in seven Assembly elections.

Further, Mamata took over the Left’s populist rhetoric even as she took up the issue of land acquisition. Over the last three years her party had notched up impressive victories in the rural and urban local bodies and in the general elections. Yet, few had foreseen the scale of the victory of her alliance with even Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharya falling by the wayside in his pocket-borough, the Assembly seat of  Jadavpur.

West Bengal falling under the sway of a regional ally of the Congress means the Left parties have lost their most firm base of support in all of India. When the Front came to power, Jimmy Carter was president of he US and the Shah of Iran was in power in Teheran. West Bengal was the bastion as the Communist Party of India (Marxist) emerged over the last two decades as a major critic of economic reform. Ironically, its embrace of private capital, specifically land acquisition for industry, proved its Achilles Heel. Mamata will now have to take up the baton and grapple with the dilemma of industrialising Bengal without alienating the land holding peasantry.

No less dramatic was Jayalalithaa’s alliance that ended Muthuvel Karunanidhi’s attempt to get a second term in Fort St George. The former cine-star had come second in the general elections only two years ago, but seems to have drawn the right lessons from that encounter. She forged an alliance with the new regional party led by Vijayakanth of DMDK. It worked and like magic. Her alliance has seen over 50 percent of all votes fall into its kitty.

She was no doubt helped in great measure by the accretion of political as well as economic clout in the hands of the chief minister’s family. ‘Dynasty or democracy’ was how Jayalalithaa defined the choice. The ruling DMK countered with its impressive record of welfare schemes, most notably free rice and its health insurance scheme. While such welfare programmes were extensive and well administered, they lacked novelty in a state with a good track-record on the human development front. After all, both the regional parties have pursued a similar mix of populist welfare and pro-investor policies in the past. Eventually, the desire for change was the driving force as the voters put paid to Karunanidhi’s search for a second consecutive term in power.

Assam stood out as it gave the Tarun Gogoi government a third term in office, the first time this has happened since the Sixties. Bishnu Ram Mehdi was the longest serving head of government and Gogoi looks set to break his 13- year record. Crucial here for Congress were the peace talks with the insurgent outfit, the United Liberation Front of Assam. The talks commenced late in 2010 and hold a promise of an end to violence that has beset the Brahmaputra valley.

Added to this is the disintegration of the regional party, the Asom Gana Parishad. Though out of power for a decade, it was unable to craft a credible pre-poll alliance. In a campaign devoid of sectarian appeal on community, religious or tribal lines, the Congress won back the middle classes while retaining support of the under-privileged.

Kerala was the other major cause for celebration for the Congress. Kerala’s ruling leftists lost by just a whisker after making a brave fight of it. In a cliff hanger of a result, the alliance won 72 of the 140 seats, a far cry from the sweep it had hoped for. Kerala stayed true to form: the last time an incumbent government got voted back was in 1977.

What stood out was the robust performance of the Left Democratic Front. Chief Minister VS Achuthanandan’s personal probity and his ability to embrace new social issues such as pollution and land encroachment made him a force to reckon with on the campaign trail. Much like Tamil Nadu, the incumbent government stressed to the voters the efficacy of its welfare schemes, especially the promise of cheap grain and women’s empowerment.

The Congress-led United Democratic Front gained heavily from a historic feature of the state’s politics: the aversion of many of the religious minorities to the Left parties. Its chief ally, the Muslim League, won 20 of the 24 seats it contested.

Yet, at the end of it all, it is clear — there is no sure fire way to win another term in office. As the victor in Tamil Nadu, J Jayalalithaa put it, “the people are full of anger.” When they want change, they can uproot the most powerful of governments. They did it via the ballot box and in a peaceable way on a blazing summer’s day.

The writer is a senior political analyst, researcher and professor of history at Delhi University. He has a special interest in environmental history and co-authored the recent report of the Elephant Task Force.