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Manipur Election 2017: Ibobi will have tough time forming govt if Congress gets less than 25 seats

CVoter exit poll result has taken many in Manipur by surprise as it predicts clear win for BJP.

The prediction comes at a time when the frontier state has seen swelling of Meitei and Naga nationalistic sentiments giving Congress in the Valley and Naga People’s Front (NPF) in the hills an edge over other parties.

According to CVoter survey prediction the saffron party will bag 25 to 31 seats in the state that has 60 assembly constituencies.

The survey also predicts that the ruling Congress would get at the most 23 seats.

While reacting to CVoter survey result, Elangbam Johnson, President of the United Council of Manipur told Firstpost that in ground the situation looks different from what it has been predicted.

“It seems that both Congress and BJP will stand on equal footing in the result. The result is likely to be shared more or less 50-50, by both the parties,” he says.

 Manipur Election 2017: Ibobi will have tough time forming govt if Congress gets less than 25 seats

Representational image. PTI

But he says that it is true that BJP has given the burning issues of Manipur much importance, which might have worked favorably for the party.

Pradip Phanjoubam, a journalist in Imphal told Firstpost that in contrary to what has been predicted in the CVoter survey, Congress is likely to emerge slightly stronger than BJP.

“It is for certain that BJP will emerge as a much more stronger party in Manipur as compared to it’s earlier performances. But as per my own estimate Congress is expected to get nearly 25 seats in the Meitei dominated valley alone. In the Naga and Kuki dominated hills, the party is likely to get six to seven seats,” he said.

He said that BJP is likely to get 15 to 20 seats in the state.

On the other hand Professor Oinam Bhagat of Jawaharlal Nehru University who is an expert from Manipur told Firstpost that he has serious doubt about whether the prediction that BJP will get more than 25 seats in Manipur is going to prove true.

“I have my own calculations about what could be the result. As per my calculations Congress is likely to get 25 to 30 seats in Manipur,” he said.

He also said that Congress may not get absolute majority but it will be somewhere near to it.

When asked about what number of seats BJP may get in the election he says that, whatever be the number of seats bagged by the saffron party, if somehow Congress fails to get at least 25 seats, it will be difficult for it to form a government.

“In that case it is likely that many of the MLAs may look upto BJP, which is in power at the Centre, for political stability. Such a situation will bring in advantage for the saffron party,” he said

Bimol Akoijam another expert from Manipur said to Firstpost that there is a growing fear in Manipur that if the Congress fails to come up with substantial number of seats than political instability may crop up in the state.

“Many in Imphal think that if a weak alliance government led by the Congress comes up, than a political instability like in Arunachal will show up,” he says.

It would be interesting to see how this fear had played up in voting, as the result will come in on Saturday.

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Updated Date: Mar 10, 2017 15:59:49 IST