Manipur: Congress set for hat-trick, Ibobi for CM

Total seats in the assembly: 60 Half-way mark: 31 Post election survey projections: INC 24-32 PDF 5-11 AITC 7-13 Others 10-18 The Indian National Congress seems set to return to power in Manipur, despite erosion in the vote share. The party will emerge as the largest party in the state, winning between 24 and 32 seats. The INC’s vote share comes down to 30 percent from 34 percent in the 2007 elections, according to the Post Election survey conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) among 1,200 respondents.[caption id=“attachment_232933” align=“alignleft” width=“380” caption=“Ready to retain. Image courtesy PIB”]  [/caption] The Trinamool Congress has made significant strides in the state, with the survey predicting as many as 14 percent of the vote share. This could translate into 7-13 seats in the assembly, making it a possibility that the Trinamool could be a part of the government if the INC’s performance is at the lower end of the survey projections. People’s Democratic Front (PDF), the anti-Congress alliance of five parties led by Manipur People’s Party (MPP), is projected to win only 13 percent of the votes. MPP, Rashtriya Janata Dal, Nationalist Congress Party, Janata Dal (U) and Communist Party of India (M) are constituents of the PDF. The post election survey also finds Manipur CM Ibobi Singh as the most preferred choice for chief minister. Twenty-five percent of the voters said they want him to be Manipur’s next chief minister. Ibobi Singh gets a positive performance appraisal by voters, with 33 percent saying that the performance of his government in the second stint was better than the performance in the first stint. Despite low satisfaction levels with the Congress government, more people (33 percent) said they wanted the government to continue in office than go (27 percent). In Manipur, the assembly elections take into account the importance of Centre-state relations, and the INC seems to gain from being the ruling party at the Centre. 75 percent of the respondents agreed with the statement that ‘It is good to have the same party ruling in Manipur as the one ruling at the Centre in Delhi’, and the following table illustrates how much the INC gains from this perception.  Much will depend on which end of the projected wins the INC is closer to when the results come in on 6 March. At the upper end, the Congress could form a government on its own. At the lower end, it will have to seek the support of either the AITC or a motley crew of others. Whatever the case, a new term for Ibobi Singh seems assured.