Mamata, Gogoi set to win; dead heat in TN, Kerala

[caption id=“attachment_7672” align=“alignleft” width=“380” caption=“It’s Mamata all the way in West Bengal. Rupak De Chowdhuri/Reuters”] [/caption] It’s Mamata all the way in West Bengal. Tamil Nadu could slip out of the DMK’s grasp – but that’s not a certainty. Assam is swinging towards the Congress and Kerala may yet deliver a surprise – by re-electing the LDF with a slim margin. In short, the results are touch and go in the two southern states, but there is little ambivalence in the east. The various exit polls and post-poll surveys agree only about West Bengal and Assam. Both Tamil Nadu and Kerala have thrown up differences. According to seat projections made by Rajiv Karandikar for CNN-IBN on the basis of a post-poll survey conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), the Left Front in West Bengal is on its way out with Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress-Congress alliance set to garner 222-234 seats – enough to give the alliance a steamroller majority. Mamata may not need the Congress to rule, if this happens. The half-way mark is 147 in a 294-member assembly. A Star News exit poll says Trinamool and Congress will win 181 and 40 seats respectively while Left Front will be reduced to 62 seats from 227.   In Kerala, the situation was too close to call, though the LDF seemed marginally ahead in terms of seat projections and vote share – 46 percent for the LDF against 45 percent to UDF, according to CNN-IBN. While seat projections based on voter sampling are always a hazardous affair, it seems likely that the LDF may cling to power, but with a reduced majority. The CNN-IBN projections show the LDF getting between 69-77 seats, and the UDF 63-71 seats. The half-way mark is 70. A Star News exit poll, however, gave the UDF a clear victory, with 88 seats against the LDF’s 49. In Assam, the CNN-IBN projections give the Congress 64-72 seats, enough to form a government on its own. While AGP and BJP get 23-33 seats between them, the AIUDF is expected to get 12-20 seats. A Headlines Today poll predicts 44 of the 126 seats for Congress in Assam, with potential ally AIUDF slated to win 14. In Tamil Nadu, the J Jayalalithaa-led AIADMK alliance looked set to win a slender majority, but the final results could still throw up a surprise since the vote share leads on the basis of which the seat projections were made are slim. But the Star News poll gave the DMK alliance victory with 124 seats against AIADMK’s 110. The half-way mark is 234.