Maharashtra polls: What numbers tell us about the projected 'Modi wave'

Four months after the ‘Modi wave’ was widely saluted in the mainstream media, on social media, in chai-break debates on politics all across India, it is back in the headlines again. In Mumbai, it has resurfaced in the shape of a four-page BJP advertisement, wrapped around most major newspapers in the city. PM Modi stares back at you from three pages, exhorting Maharashtra to vote for a ‘stable government’. On the last page, the party has splashed excerpts from an interview with Prithviraj Chavan, where the former Maharashtra CM had pointed an accusing finger at the NCP corruption. Despite this being a state election, there is little mention of the state BJP leader, making the message clear: A vote for the BJP is a vote for Modi. [caption id=“attachment_1757311” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Representational image. AFP.[/caption] In fact, if reports are to be believed, the Prime Minister himself has assured the party at the state level that his namesake wave won’t disappoint. The Times of India reports: "The PM is believed to have told his party’s Maharashtra functionaries after one of his recent Mumbai jamborees that BJP will reap a “rich harvest” of over 165 seats in the 288-strong assembly." One opinion poll conducted by Hansa for The Week almost echoed Modi’s sentiments. It predicted 154 seats for the BJP and just 47 for the Sena . Another survey conducted by Zee along with Taleem, predicted 110 seats for the BJP and 52 for the Sena. The results, which have put the BJP in the lead,  show that the party’s plan to resuscitate the ‘Modi wave’ might be working. However, there is a rider - in the shape of the Shiv Sena. A report on TOI says, "The opinion poll done by Cicero for the India Today group predicted that the BJP would win between 121 and 145 seats or a range of 12 seats around the 133 mark. That would mean a gain of over 80 seats from the party’s 2009 tally of 46.  It also suggested its vote share would more than double from 14% five years ago to touch 30%." On the other hand, the Congress and the NCP are on a serious decline if the opinion polls numbers are to be believed. Whereas 2009 Assembly polls’ seat tally shows that the Congress dominated several regions in Maharashtra - Vidarbha (24 of 62 seats), Mumbai (18 of 60), Marathwada (18 of  46) - the NCP had its own share of seat glory in Western Maharashtra (20 of 58), Northern Maharashtra (13 of 47) and Konkan (5 of 15). However, the Cicero exit polls show that vote share of BJP has gone up dramatically, hinting at a sharp increase in the number of seats. Marathwada, a Congress stronghold has seen BJP’s vote share rise to 40 percent in the predictions from the 14 percent it had in 2009. Northern Maharashtra, which last year’s seat count shows, was a NCP stronghold has also seen a rise in the vote share for BJP. The part has been predicted to get 34 percent, up from the 13.4 percent last year. In 2009, the BJP had just 11 percent of the votes in Mumbai region, the predictions show that it might be up to 23 percent this time around. BJP needs 145 seats for an absolute majority, in order to make sure the party doesn’t have to seek post-poll alliances. At this moment, the possibility of alliances seem bleak for the BJP unless the Sena decides to swallow a bitter pill, gives up its chief ministerial ambitions and walks back into a post-poll alliance. While parties are making their own calculations, most psephologists have been wary of predicting results in the state’s polls, implying that the parties’ own math might go very wrong when the results are revealed. While all the parties have their strongholds, they have mostly acted together in the past few elections making it very difficult to predict votes. Rajesh Ramachandran succinctly sums up the dichotomy facing both the parties and the voters in his Economic Times article: "When an alliance breaks, its votes do not get split equally or proportionately, instead its voter has to make a tough choice between the old partners. In this case, a committed Shiv Sena-BJP voter now has to vote against Sena or BJP. Earlier a voter from   Bihar   or UP, though he did not like Sena, would have voted for Sena simply because he was a BJP follower. Likewise, a Maratha who did not particularly like the Brahminical roots of BJP would have still voted for BJP for the sake of Sena or Bal Thackeray." Where BJP is hoping that a Modi wave will sweep such dilemmas aside,  the Sena has gone for a pro-development makeover that BJP made its own in the general elections. Hence, the attempt to push an Aditya Thackeray talking about internet, education, business and nightlife, in crisp English on radio channels etc. to show that the Sena is trying to move beyond the ‘hail Marathi manoos’ politics. Now will the Sena be able to come up with an answer to the trophy ‘Modi wave’? Will the ‘Modi wave’ woo Sena’s voters away? We will know in a few days.