Maharashtra drama not yet over: NCP to vote for BJP in return for 2 ministries?

Politics in Maharashtra, which is now centred on the Bharatiya Janata Party forming a stable government, is taking what could be a new turn.

According to media reports, the Nationalist Congress Party may have other plans apart from merely abstaining to enable Devendra Fadnavis to win he confidence vote.

The Shiv Sena on the other hand, though institutionally appearing to be keen on joining the BJP in a post-poll alliance, is actually divided on the issue. Contingency plans have been initiated to explain to its MLAs that if the party sat in opposition, the party ought to remain united because they will have another shot on another day.

However, it has muddled the waters for such proponents by simultaneously carrying out discussions with the BJP for a share in the government, including, if you please, a deputy chief ministership. The BJP may give more than its intended 4-10 seats but appears unwavering on a dual power centre.

A reading of reports in this morning’s newspapers and tiny unattributed capsules on news television does not bring clarity on the direction of the developments. There appear to be more than one gambit being played.

Maharashtra Times says the Nationalist Congress Party’s “unconditional support” from outside to BJP does have some strings attached to it after all: two ministerships in the Narendra Modi cabinet. It is on the strength of this intent that the BJP has been tough with the Shiv Sena, it said, but the newspaper did not identify its “sources within the BJP”.

It was decided that regardless of any possible concessions the Congress may have conceded to the NCP, and the Sena to the BJP, the break-up plans were in place much earlier, the Mumbai daily said. Citing an unnamed BJP source in Delhi, Maharashtra Times said an excuse would have been found to break alliances. There had been consultations between the BJP and the NCP to this effect.

Interestingly, Praful Patel, a key top leader in the NCP who speaks on behalf of the party has been quoted in The Indian Express thus: “It is not possible to predict now” if the NCP intended to join the government at the Centre. He had been asked if there was such a possibility and he “refused to directly answer it”. Patel had commented that with the National Conference, DMK, and NCP moving out, “What’s the relevance of UPA today”.

Patel has been quoted saying, “We will vote for the BJP during the trust vote on November 12”. This runs counter to the announcement by Sharad Pawar that during the confidence vote, the NCP would abstain. Patel is known for his careful choice of words. Till this morning, it was considered a given that NCP would abstain.

However, this report of much significance to Maharashtra has changed and as of now uncertain politics has surprisingly been placed on Maharashtra Times’ page 5. The Indian Express too published it on its page 4. These developments, if they are played out, would bring about a major political realignment.

Uddhav Thackeray, on the other hand, promising to one day return to the Ekvira Devi’s temple – she is the Thackeray family deity - near Lonavla “with 180 MLAs” is, to say the least, rather odd. It does not necessarily mean the total strength of the Sena and the BJP in the Assembly, 122 plus 63 which is 185.

It could mean that the Sena would sit in the Opposition and in the next polls, do better than the BJP did this year.

The Sena has made it known that if the party is not taken on board by the date of the trust vote, it will elect the leader of its legislative party. It sought to make a veiled threat that it makes it easier for the party to get to be the Opposition. In legislative practice, regardless of whether a party was in government or not, it has to have a leader elected.

It is so even if any two or more parties had fought an election as partners. An alliance can have its leader, but each group within has to have a leader without which intra-alliance business of politics and administration becomes difficult. Therefore, Uddhav Thackeray’s was a pointless red herring, or just an attempt to keep the ambient political noise high.