Editor's Note: The following report is based on a continuous mood of voters survey by conducted by CVoter once a week since August through telephonic interviews. The survey was not commissioned by Firstpost.
The Bharatiya Janata Party and Congress are engaged in a neck-and-neck fight in Madhya Pradesh, which goes to the polls on 28 November, a survey by C-Voter has predicted.
The survey, which was done for ABP News and Republic TV has concluded that the Congress has been unable to capitalise on anti-incumbency and an "insipid" state BJP. The saffron party has been in power in the state for the past three terms.
According to C-voter's prediction from November 2018, the Congress will get 118 seats while the BJP will get 106 seats. In this scenario, the Congress would cross the halfway mark (115) with a wafer-thin margin in a 230-member Legislative Assembly.
The difference in the vote share between the two parties is also extremely small, with the Congress expected to get 42.3 percent votes and the BJP expected to garner 41.5 percent of the vote share.
"A close contest brings micro and regional factors in play, therefore in Madhya Pradesh, a sweep in one of the regions by either party can upset the balance. The regional equation and the relative strength of the two parties in various regions may decide the election," the survey states. In what comes as good news for the Congress, party leader Jyotiraditya Scindia is considerably more popular than Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan at present. Given a specific choice between Scindia and Chouhan, 51.3 percent voters would choose the former over the latter.
However, challenges for the grand old party include infighting, and the possibility that the Narendra Modi factor will tilt the scales in favour of the BJP.
Two regions where the gap between the BJP and the Congress is small could well be key to the result of the battle: Mahakaushal (where the BJP is expected to win 21 seats as against the Congress' 20) and Nimar (where the BJP is expected to win 19 seats as against the Congress' 9).
Updated Date: Nov 09, 2018 21:30 PM