LS polls: Can Deve Gowda woo minorities in Karnataka?

JD(S) chief HD Deve Gowda, a staunch follower of astrology, was apparently cursed for seven and a half years after his son HD Kumaraswamy joined hands with the BJP in 2006-07, to form a coalition government in Karnataka. [caption id=“attachment_1452983” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  JD(S) Chief and former prime minister HD Deve Gowda. AFP[/caption] Since 2006, Gowda has been desperately trying to redeem his secular credentials and gain control over Minority votes. For the last two weeks, Gowda appeared to have had the opportunity to get rid of the curse and throw surprises at the Congress and the BJP in the Parliamentary polls. However, the former PM has just fallen short of his target. Minority leaders, who felt let down by the Congress, had made a beeline before Gowda. First, it was senior Congress leader CK Jaffer Sharief and later former cop HT Sangliana, both of whom were denied tickets by the Congress. Ultimately, even Gowda’s former associate CM Ibrahim was back at JD (S) doors. But the Congress managed to defuse the situation by convincing Sangliana to stay with them. Sharief, who had agreed to contest from Mysore on a JD (S) ticket, collected ‘A’ and ‘B’ forms and went on an Umrah (pilgrimage). He promised to return on 23 March and file his nomination. Instead, he extended his stay and sent a message that he would not contest the elections due to health reasons, but would extend support to the JD (S). As far as Ibrahim is concerned, his negotiation ended at the discussion table. This was a set-back for the JD (S), which was desperately looking to build an image of being the defender of minorities by roping in the support of Sharief, Ibrahim and Sangliana. After the JD (S)-BJP coalition in Karnataka ended abruptly, the JD (S) suffered a series of debacles in two elections to the Assembly and one election to Parliament. Gowda realised that the minorities had largely deserted his party. The worst was during the by-elections to Bangalore Rural and Mandya (2006), both JD(S) bastions, which were snatched away by the Congress. Though minority votes are considered to be Muslim monolithic vote banks, Christian votes are part of it too. In addition, there is a section of the Dalit vote bank in Karnataka and it has always taken an anti-BJP stand. This sector largely votes against the BJP. In pockets of the Old Mysore region, both, the JD(S) and the Congress, largely depend on the minority vote bank to win the elections. However, all is not lost for Gowda. Sharief, after resigning from the Congress by sending his resignation to the AICC from Mecca, said he would work with the Third Front. This creates a new ray of hope for Gowda, who wants to take advantage of the issue. The JD(S) is planning to put up a stiff fight in over 13 constituencies, including Bidar, Shimoga, Chitradurga, Tumkur, Chikkballapura, Kolar, Bengaluru Rural, Mandya, Mysore, Hassan and Uttara Kannada. Though the cadre base for the party and the candidates are strong in at least 10 constituencies, the winning factor is the minority votes. All these years, the party has been largely dependent on the Vokkaliga (second largest community in Karnataka) votes and have fought with the Congress for its share of Backward Class and Dalit votes. Apart from minority votes, Gowda is banking on the Dalit factor. During the last general elections, other than Siddaramaiah, Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee President G Parameshwara was a strong contender for the chief minister’s post. Parameshwara is a Dalit leader and he was defeated by a margin of 15,000 votes in his constituency Koratagere. Interestingly, there are 15,000 Kuruba community votes in the constituency, which Siddaramaiah belongs to. This created heartburn among Dalits, who held Siddaramaiah responsible for Parameshwara’s loss. Later, while selecting the CM, another Dalit leader Mallikarjuna Kharge was in the race. However, the party overlooked his seniority. When there was a proposal to create a Deputy CM’s post to accommodate Parameshwara and placate the Dalits, apparently, Siddaramaiah opposed it. This further consolidated the Dalits’ animosity towards Siddaramaiah. Gowda is now encashing this as well by making it an election issue. So far, the strategy of the JD (S) has been to take advantage of the rift between leaders as well as communities within the Congress to settle scores with his old follower Siddaramaiah. If minorities and Dalits support Gowda, JD (S) could deliver surprising results, otherwise Gowda has to give up his ambition to lead the yet to be formed Third Front.