Lost in Blunderland, Naveen can't tell friend from foe

by Sanjay Raut A fortnight after Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik suspended his one-time mentor and Rajya Sabha MP Pyari Mohan Mohapatra from the Biju Janata Dal over the 29 May ‘coup’ attempt, Patnaik remains trapped in a bubble of mistrust and suspicion. Patnaik, of course, survived the coup — after sacking three members of his ministry and suspending two MLAs from the party — but he remains a worried man these days, unable to differentiate between friends and foes. Last week, he threw open the gates of Naveen Niwas, his official residence, to his party MLAs; partymen from all corners of the State, who had all along been kept at arm’s length, were pleasantly surprised by the warmth of the reception. Pataik smiled at them, made solicitous enquiries about them, and even visibly demonstrated his affection — patting some MLAs’ backs and asking if they were enjoying the snacks on offer. But well-placed BJD sources say that behind the smiling facade, Patnaik nurses a troubled mind; he is a man who is not sure of his position. Party sources say that Patnaik is so shaken by the ‘coup’ attempt that he continues to see the spectre of Mohapatra in government and in the party. [caption id=“attachment_344984” align=“alignleft” width=“380” caption=“Behind the smiling facade, Patnaik nurses a troubled mind; he is a man who is not sure of his position. PTI”]  [/caption] “He keeps tabs on more than 60 MLAs who were in touch with the Mohapatra camp over the ‘coup’ attempt,” said a senior BJD leader. “Although most of these MLAs have sworn unflinching loyalty to him, Naveen can’t get over the frightening reality that a sizeable number of his MLAs contemplated overthrowing him when he was away. What has added to his fear that that State police did a lousy job of intelligence-gathering and failed to inform him of the ‘coup’ brewing in the party ranks.” The air of mistrust has affected Patnaik to such an extent that he is in a dilemma over whom to axe and whom to induct in the Cabinet reshuffle. After sacking ministers Anjali Behera, Sarada Prasad Nayak and Sanjeev Sahoo early this month, his ministry was reduced to 16 members (excluding himself). Patnaik has his hands full: he is in charge of nine departments, including agriculture, public works, housing and urban development and women and child development. A cabinet expansion is an absolute necessity if governance is not to suffer. Additionally, Patnaik has to get rid of people loyal to Mohapatra. But that is easier said than done: no one knows the DNA of the BJD and the government better than Mohapatra. The machiavellian Mohapatra, who held sway in the party for a decade, knows the lowliest party functionaries, BDOs and tehsildars. In that sense, his supporters are everywhere in the organisation — and Patnaik cannot afford to undertake a wholesale purge of the administration. Not only would it be a long-drawn affair, it would lead to mini revolts in the party structure. What has compounded Patnaik’s problem is that his new set of advisors — like Damodar Rout and Prasanna Acharya, Baijayant Panda and Pinaki Mishra — have done nothing to clear the air of suspicion. So long as Mohapatra enjoyed his confidence, Patnaik had given him untrammelled powers within the party. Mohapatra did all the organisational dirty work, and often took the blame when things didn’t go too well; Patnaik, on the other hand, all the credit for all the good work. But after the ‘coup’, several of his ‘advisors’ have only vitiated the atmosphere by starting a whisper campaign against one another, confusing him further. Added to the problem is Patnaik’s lack of familiarity with his MLAs and other elected representatives. Several BJD MLAs recall Patnaik has committed numerous gaffes over the past fortnight — since he can’t recognise his own men. Patnaik’s options are fairly limited. One of them is for him to ‘reinvent himself’ and begin to take charge of the party and the government on a day-to-day basis — but that’s a role he doesn’t relish. He sees himself more as a national player — in the mould of Jayalalithaa and Narendra Modi. Second, he can have a set of advisors from the party who can effectively replace Mohapatra — and induct fresh blood into his ministry and the party. The third option is for him to opt for a snap poll sometime next year to coincide with a possible mid-term election for the Lok Sabha. Patnaik’s trump card is that his personal reputation as a clean man remains untarnished. A snap poll would help him purge the party of all elements close to Mohapatra and form a new government with a clean slate as he whips up popular support by projecting himself as a martyr to the cause of development.