Lok Sabha election 2019: Kerala set for toughest triangular contest in its poll history; Sabarimala, political killings to be hottest issues

Politics revolving around the 28 September Supreme Court verdict allowing women of all ages to enter the Sabarimala temple and political violence, will be the hottest issues in the Lok Sabha election scheduled to be held in Kerala on 23 April. However, political parties will have to virtually sweat it out to take their stand on these and other issues to the 2.54-crore electorate with weather watchers predicting an unusual 0.5 to 4 degree Celsius rise in temperature during the current summer. While the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a rise ranging from 0.5 to 1 degree Celsius for the entire season, the Kerala State Disaster Management Authority (KSDMA) said it could be in the range of 2 to 4 with a maximum departure of 8 degree Celsius. KSDMA member secretary Sekhar L Kuriakose said they had made the forecast based on the IMD weather models. K Abhilash, an atmospheric expert from Cochin University of Science and Technology (CUSAT) termed the KSDMA warning a slight exaggeration. However, he said that the departure could be 3 degree Celsius taking into account the global warming and the El Nino possibility this year. [caption id=“attachment_6236401” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Kerala EC has warned political parties against using Sabarimala issue for poll gains. Reuters[/caption] The state government has accepted the KSDMA prediction as it had found the IMD rain forecast during the South-West monsoon faulty and has initiated several precautionary measures. They include declaration of heat wave, sunburn and sunstroke as state-specific disasters and allocation of fund for compensating the victims. The scorching summer heat will impact elections as door-to-door campaigning is the favourite for political parties in the state. All the major parties have formed specially-trained squads to take the campaign to people’s door steps. KSDMA has advised election candidates and their supporters to do door-to-door campaign before noon. The agency has asked campaigners to avoid exposure to direct sunlight between 12 noon and 3 pm and wear light clothes, hold an umbrella and carry safe drinking water and oral rehydration kits while going for door-to-door campaign. Parties were expecting the election for the 20 seats in the state in the first phase. But the Election Commission’s decision to hold the election in the third phase on 23 April has given over 40 days for campaigning, indicating a grueling campaign ahead. Poll funding will add to state Congress’ woes Apart from the summer heat, the parties also have to find additional resources to carry forward the campaign for these many days. This is a tough task for parties like the Congress, which has been in the Opposition, both at the Centre and the state. The state leadership of the party is not expecting any major help from the All India Congress Committee (AICC) as it has been witnessing a steep dip in their income ever since it relinquished power in 2014. According to a report in The New Indian Express, the income of the party declined from Rs 593.31 crore in 2014-15 to Rs 193 crore in 2016-17. The Congress, which is contesting 16 seats in Kerala, is also finding it difficult to raise the fund domestically as the state economy has been crippled by the devastating August flood. The NRIs, who used to come to the aid of the Congress and its allies in big way during the elections, are also helpless this time as they are still reeling under the economic recession being grappled with by the Gulf countries. “The campaigning for 43 days will be tough for us compared to the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Communist Party of India (Marxist). However, we will find means to achieve our objective of throwing out Narendra Modi from power,” said state Congress chief Mullappally Ramachandran. LDF and BJP welcome 43 days of campaigning The CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the BJP have welcomed the 43 days given to them for the campaigning, saying that it will give them adequate time to reach out to the people. The CPI(M), which has already announced its candidates and launched their campaign, hopes the additional time they get will help them win more seats. The optimism is based on the previous performance. LDF convenor A Vijaraghavan said that the Left parties had won 18 of the 20 LS seats in the state in 2004, when the parties got more than 60 days for campaigning. He claimed that the LDF will forge ahead the other two fronts, which are yet to finalize their candidates, this time. N K Premachandran, a sitting MP belonging to the Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP), a constituent of the Congress-led United Democratic Front (LDF), conceded that launching campaign ahead of rivals will certainly give an advantage during elections but the current election will be based on crucial issues. He said that the time that the LDF got this time may not be sufficient to heal the wounds it has inflicted on Hindu believers over the Sabarimala issue. Premchandran said that the Left coalition will also have to struggle hard for explaining its politics of annihilation. Congress spokesperson Jyothi Kumar Chamakala said that the UDF has an upper hand as their party is not in power either at the Centre or the state. “We will begin our campaign with no anti-incumbency factor. This is a good way to hit the campaign trail,” he said adding that the party candidates will be finalised in a day or two and the list will be released and campaign begun soon. BJP pins hopes on Sabarimala issue The BJP camp, which is hoping to open its Lok Sabha account in Kerala, is confident as it feels the party has already done considerable work by consolidating Hindus over the Sabarimala issue. The opening of the Ayyappa temple for the monthly puja twice before the elections from 15-19 March and from 15-19 April will help the saffron party to keep the issue alive till the elections. However, the LDF government is not likely to precipitate the issue by facilitating entry of menstruating women in the hill shrine before the elections. The government has already deployed a huge contingent of police in and around the temple to prevent young women from entering the temple for the coming monthly puja. Meanwhile, the state election commission has warned political parties in Kerala against using the Sabarimala issue for poll gains, reports claimed on Monday. The parties and the candidates are expected to weather all odds since they consider the poll crucial in deciding the next government at the Centre. The Congress is seeking maximum seats from the state to strengthen Rahul Gandhi’s bid for power and the LDF for a secular third front government while the BJP is looking for at least 12 seats from the state to compensate the loss the party is likely to face in the Hindi-belt. With all the three fronts gearing up for a do-or-die battle, Kerala is expected to witness the toughest triangular contest in its elections history so far.