Lok Sabha Election 2019: Criticism of poll dates coinciding with Ramzan shows Opposition keener on making excuses for failure than beating BJP

The Election Commission’s announcement of dates for the Lok Sabha election 2019 has officially announced the greatest show on earth. The numbers are mind-boggling. According to the Chief Election Commissioner, the seven-phase elections that kick off from 11 April (before results are announced on 23 May), will involve 900 million voters.

That’s 85 million more than 2014 and includes 15 million new voters. Quite naturally, for an electorate of this size — not to speak of the complexity — political parties that have national ambitions either search for one big idea or a set of ideas that have cross-voter appeal or seek to make tactical alliances to share power through coalition politics.

The BJP’s dominance on national stage as a political party, expansion of footprint, consolidation of power and even ideological ascendancy will be tested at the electoral hustings. While accounting for the realities of anti-incumbency and the gaps between promises and achievements that dog any ruling party — more so if its route to power was paved by sky-high expectations — Narendra Modi-led BJP still looks a shoo-in. Opinion poll predictions are frequently wrong, but a clutch of surveys may provide us with a useful trend.

According to three recent surveys, the BJP-led NDA may fall short of the highs of 2014 but it may comfortably be able to retain power, even if BJP fails to get simple majority on its own. According to CVoter-IANS survey done in March , the NDA may bag 264 seats and require a post-poll alliance to seal power. It should not be too difficult. The Congress-led UPA is projected to get 141. The CVoter survey also pegs BJP’s seat count at 220 and Congress’ at 86.

In another survey, also done in March, involving 38,600 respondents in 193 Parliamentary constituencies across 29 states and UTs, India TV-CNX opinion poll predicts that the NDA will get 285 seats (that’s 13 more than the magical mark of 272) among which BJP will account for 238. It projects UPA’s tally at 126 seats among which Congress may get 82. The poll has 2.5 percent error margin.

A tracker poll conducted by TimesNow-VMR in its latest round has found that between 5 and 21 February, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s approval ratings jumped seven percent after the Pulwama attack. Over 52 percent respondents endorse Modi for having a “better roadmap for the country” while Rahul Gandhi, his nearest competitor, has approval from 27 percent respondents.

Applying all the usual disclaimers, the pertinent question worth asking is at a time when there is lack of jobs in formal and even informal sector, private investments are not picking up, rural distress is high and wage growth is low, why is the BJP still seemingly ahead in perception polls? The debate over national security following the Balakot airstrikes may have certainly tilted the balance in BJP’s favour. It could be argued that when national security, terrorism and threat to sovereignty become issues in domestic politics, people tend to gravitate towards a ‘strong’ leader who won’t flinch from taking difficult decisions.

The latest air strikes carried out by the Indian Air Force across the Line of Control in Pakistan’s Balakot burnished Modi’s ‘strongman’ credentials and the emerging brouhaha benefitted the BJP to the extent that it pushed quotidian issues to the margins. However, as the aphorism goes, a week is a long time in politics.

Between March and 11 April, when the first phase for voting will open, there is no reason to think that national security will dominate the mindscape of voters and other issues will fade into background. The BJP certainly hopes that it does and has been fashioning its campaign on the perceived threat from Pakistan and India’s “befitting reply”, but these plans rarely work. Quotidian issues may still shape voter opinion.

The original question returns.

When data shows that rural distress has deepened, wage growth is lower compared to the UPA years even adjusting for inflation and the crisis seems to be spreading from on-farm to off-farm — as The Indian Express points out in an article — why is the BJP still the party to beat?

A major part of the problem for the Opposition lies in their defensive approach. It is as if before even the last stretch of campaigning has begun and pre-poll alliances have taken shape, Opposition parties feel that BJP is the favourite.

Following the Election Commission’s announcement that voting will conclude by 19 May after the seventh and last phase — the day 59 constituencies will go for elections in 8 states — Modi posted a series of tweets to congratulate the EC, urged the voters to ensure a historic turnout and even wished rival candidates in a cordial gesture. This message ended with Modi adding that now that foundations for India’s take-off has been laid, he must be given another term to build a ‘strong’, ‘prosperous’ and ‘secure’ India.

Guided by ‘Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas’, NDA seeks your blessings again.
We spent the last five years fulfilling basic necessities that were left unfulfilled for 70 long years. Now, time has come to build on that and create a strong, prosperous & secure India. #PhirEkBaarModiSarkar

— Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) March 10, 2019

A lot of it might be optics, but these messages also reveal a note of confidence that Modi enjoys. Contrast the prime minister’s reaction to EC’s announcement with that of the Opposition. From Congress and Trinamool Congress in West Bengal to Aam Admi Party in Delhi, the declaration of poll schedule has been met with criticism of the most ridiculous sort.

Kolkata Mayor and a senior leader in Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress, Firhad Hakim has accused the Election Commission of ‘favouritism’ towards the BJP. West Bengal has a sizeable Muslim population at 31 percent. Hakim said : “EC has announced the poll dates on Ramzan so that minorities are unable to cast their votes. But I would like to tell them (the BJP) that the people of Bengal are with (Trinamool chief) Mamata Banerjee.” Hakim was backed by Congress’s Bengal unit chief Somen Mitra.

AAP legislator Amanatullah Khan was next. In a tweet, the Delhi Waqf Board chairman alleged that EC’s decision to hold elections during Ramzan will benefit the BJP.

12 मई का दिन होगा दिल्ली में रमज़ान होगा मुसलमान वोट कम करेगा इसका सीधा फायदा बीजेपी को होगा।

— Amanatullah Khan AAP (@KhanAmanatullah) March 10, 2019

Sanjay Singh, another AAP MP, went a step further to allege that EC is taking orders from the BJP. The EC, incidentally, is a Constitutional body.

क्या चुनाव आयोग भाजपा कार्यालय से संचालित होता है?2014 में 5 मार्च को चुनाव की घोषणा हुई,5 दिनो में मोदी जी ने कई रैली, सभा कर लिया, आज ग़ाज़ीयाबाद का भाषण के बाद चुनाव की घोषणा,आचार सहिता के बाद पोस्टर तो उतारने ही पड़ेंगे अब आप कह रहे हैं भाजपा सेना के शौर्य का इस्तेमाल न करें

— Sanjay Singh AAP (@SanjayAzadSln) March 10, 2019

The point about the holy month of Ramzan clashing with voting process is ridiculous. The democratic process must be carried out in accordance with rules and regulations and within a stipulated time. The EC has received enough criticism for a phase-wise lengthy process to ensure easy movement of troops and free and fair elections — the organising of which is its primary responsibility. If this process is hit further by religious sentiments — and if similar demands are raised by other communities in this vast, multi-ethnic, multi-religious and multi-cultural country, then democracy itself will be at stake.

The Opposition’s demands show their lack of confidence and the fact that the parties don’t believe they can stop the Modi juggernaut. The BJP may have enough headwinds to tackle, but the Opposition’s insecurity creates opportunities for BJP to exploit.