In her rallies, still fresh in public memory, Mamata Banerjee has faithfully clung on to her trademark ‘me-against-the-world’ tone. Consequently, in her video-game perfect world where she is the lone warrior against the evils of her time, Narendra Modi is no different from her ex-ally Congress. In fact, in a speech last year , she called Modi and Congress two sides of the same coin. Later, she vociferously voiced her disapproval of Modi and said that Trinamool Congress has not and will never support Narendra Modi. Despite her public snubs however, Modi has doggedly pursued her support and repeatedly hailed her opposition of the UPA. Given that Modi’s Prime Ministerial dreams will not come true by his rhetoric alone and alliances will be of supreme importance in states where the BJP is not powerful, the Gujarat CM’s show of patience is understandable. But while Modi keeps pinning his hopes on Mamata, the West Bengal CM might just be on her own trip - one that the Gujarat CM is least likely to benefit from. An opinion poll conducted by CSDS for the Lokniti-IBN poll tracker suggests that compared to even last year, a greater percentage of people approve of the present Trinamool Congress government in power. Thirty nine percent of the respondents have said that they prefer the current TMC government, as opposed to 30 percent who said that the Left government was better. And of the people giving a thumbs up to the Mamata Banerjee government, 54 percent are Muslims. In fact, Muslim support for the TMC seems to have gone up in the past one month sharply. Just 39 percent of respondents who preferred the TMC government in 2013, were Muslims. That statistic is reason enough to suggest that a Modi-Mamata alliance will not be achieved easily. [caption id=“attachment_1349607” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Mamata Banerjee will rule the roost in Bengal in 2014. Agencies.[/caption] A few other facts, emerging from the same poll, bolster the idea that Mamata Banerjee will be unlikely to form an alliance with a Narendra Modi led BJP. First, the satisfaction with the Trinamool Congress government has risen to 55 percent in the past one month from 5o percent over the last year. Given the nature of Bengal’s political narrative, it is very unlikely that the state will poll keeping a broader national perspective in mind and help pool votes for the BJP, by directly voting for the party. Though support for the BJP and Narendra Modi has still climbed in the state this year as compared to previous years, the state’s reins stay firmly in the hand of Mamata Banerjee. Take for example the vote-share projection revealed in the poll. While the BJP’s vote share is up to 14 percent from 12 percent last year, Trinamool still has nearly triple the vote share at 33 percent. Eighteen percent of the respondents believed that Narendra Modi was a better Prime Ministerial candidate than Mamata who got eleven percent votes. But what is truly significant is that as many as 50 percent of potential voters had no opinion as to who would make a good Prime Minister of the country. The staggering percentage of ’not sure’ votes points are an important feature of Bengal’s voting culture. Contrast this to the mere 12 percent respondents in Bihar who didn’t have a specific leader in mind as a PM candidate and it is fairly clear that to a greater section of Bengalis, the politics at the Centre is a matter of much less importance than the politics within the state. The same voter characteristic has made sure that the Congress has failed to claw back in power in Bengal. Here the big players remain two parties with little national reach - the Trinamool Congress and CPIM. Bengal, for the longest time, has been goaded to vote more by the inconveniences faced locally and over issues that the voters feel the state government has a solution for. Understandably, therefore, the state voted Mamata Banerjee into power despite her several tiffs and inconsistent behaviour as a Union Minister. To voters in Bengal, Mamata’s raptures of hyperactivity seemed like a reasonable cure to the sloth shrouding the state following the Left’s 30-year-rule. Moreover, Mamata has been able to portray herself as a leader whose primary objective is the welfare of West Bengal, even at the cost of her political future at the Centre. She has sparred with the Congress, she has sparred with the BJP and has seemed to convince her voters that she is not willing to compromise on anything that has to do with Bengal. A feeling which seems to have gone down reasonably well with her voter base, especially outside Kolkata - in the endless stretches of rural Bengal that has always dictated power equations in the political headquarters in the city. Like we have noted on Firstpost previously, unlike say an AAP, Mamata rode a wave that originated in rural Bengal and then washed over Kolkata in its way. Significantly, the police firing that killed farmers in Nandigram in West Mindapore and the CPM’s land acquisition battle with farmers in Singur in Hooghly district served as the catalyst that led to the brisk deterioration of the Left rule and the rise of Banerjee. The same electorate is yet not as disenchanted with Mamata Banerjee as sections of intelligentsia in urban corridors of Kolkata are. So, while the fifty percent voters unsure about the PM candidate will not aid Mamata in becoming the PM in anyway, they will also in no way help Modi inch closer to his target. One can expect that given Bengal’s voting history that the same voters who don’t seem to be bothered about the country’s PM candidate, will possibly vote for Trinamool out of a belief that they need to give Mamata enough bargaining power in the country’s politics. Given that the closest a politician from Bengal has gotten to achieving national glory of any nature is President Pranab Mukherjee, Bengal’s voters also don’t envisage much of the national future for their favoured local leader. Another statistic shows that both Modi and Congress will have to pursue Banerjee enthusiastically if they are to gain the voter support of Bengal, is that 43 percent of Trinamool’s voters are in favour of an alliance with the Congress and 30 percent are okay with the party siding with the BJP. Given that these voters who support Trinamool also outnumber others who support any other regional and national party, this statistic is important. It is clear that Bengal has no distinctive vision or opinion about the effectiveness of an alliance with either BJP or Congress, they would rather place their faith and their votes on TMC, trusting Banerjee to take a decision most favourable for the state. This is bad news for Modi for more than one reason. The CPI(M) in Bengal has not shied away from calling Modi ‘Hitler’ and’mass murderer’. Mamata, who has openly declared that she will not support Modi ever, will be in a spot if she announces a tie-up with Modi as the CPM might drum up fierce criticism against her to reclaim its voter base. Also, like the results revealed, Mamata’s voter base is indeed strengthened by a Muslim populace. As a government, the TMC has never overlooked that aspect of their support base. The government remained quiet as a Muslim group went on a rampage in the Kolkata Book Fair not long ago demanding a boycott on the release of a book penned by Taslima Nasrin. It also announced a s eries of sops for Muslims, especially before the panchayat polls last year which the TMC swept. Apart from government allowances for maulvis, 10,000 madrasas got a government stamp, loan and employment schemes were announced for Muslim youths. It doesn’t take a genius to figure that a government which has invested that much in nurturing Muslim support will gamble it away by backing Modi. Because the narrative around Modi in Bengal oscillates between dismissal, ignorance and very weak support. The narrative around Modi in large sections of Bengal’s voting population has not developed beyond Gujarat 2002. For example, 18 percent respondents in Bengal endorse Modi, as opposed to a whopping 39 percent in Bihar. The Gujarat CM, curiously, has also hardly touched Bengal in his addresses or poll itinerary keeping awareness about him limited to a bare minimum. 2014 is set to be a great power trip for Mamata Banerjee. Let’s see who she decides to walk alongside.