SP surge puzzles experts

Disbelief. This has been the reaction from poll pundits and politicians to the CNN-IBN-The Week post poll survey which projects a massive 232-250 seats for the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh. It was conducted by Centre for the Study of Developing Societies. The survey predicts a complete rout for the Congress-RLD combine along with the BJP. The survey says that the Congress alliance may end up with a paltry 36-44 seats while the saffron party with 28-38 MLAs in the 403-member house. The ruling Bahujan Samaj Party under the stewardship of Mayawati may get only 65-79 seats. Reacting to this projection in the Battle for the States programme in CNN-IBN anchored by Editor-in-Chief Rajdeep Sardesai, senior journalist Sharad Pradhan said, “The projection of a landslide victory has even astonished senior leaders in the Samajwadi Party. Even the party is not expecting more than 165.” Explaining the huge leap of seats for the SP, Yogendra Yadav, senior fellow at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, said, “Even I was surprised at this result. I thought Congress would get some sympathy votes because of Rahul Gandhi. But in the end it turned out that SP seems to be the clear replacement for BSP.”[caption id=“attachment_234823” align=“alignleft” width=“380” caption=“The electronic way to democracy. Reuters”] [/caption] Manini Chatterjee, Delhi editor of The Telegraph, said, “It is not a pro-SP wave but an anti-BSP wave.” The fall of Mayawati Some of the experts felt that BSP supremo Mayawati should not be written off in a hurry. Journalist and author, Ajoy Bose, who also wrote a biography on the BSP chief said, “It is wrong to write off a leader in one election.” Vandita Mishra from The Indian Express felt that it was corruption at the grassroots level that may spell the doom for Mayawati and not issues like price rise. “There is also a feeeling on the ground that whatever she did was only for her vote base Jatavs,” Mishra said. Leadership crisis and national parties The lack of leadership in both the national parties did crop up during the discussion. “The Congress and the BJP have no local roots without a strong state leadership. It is a leadership crisis in both the national parties in the state,” said Swapan Dasgupta, senior journalist. Pradhan felt whatever the Congress gains in UP will be because of Rahul Gandhi. “People talk about the lack of leadership of the national parties in the state,” he said. However, Siddharth Nath Singh from the BJP said, “Our party is unlike the Congress. It is unfair to compare the two.” Young guns: Rahul and Akhilesh The panel found the comparison between Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav uncalled for, although both are heir apparent in their respective parties. The general mood was that while Rahul was imported, Akhilesh was from the state. Akhilesh as future chief minister of Uttar Pradesh The pundits felt that it was too early for the young Yadav to handle the rein of the state. “I foresee that if your projections come true Mulayam Singh Yadav will be the chief minister for a year or two and pass on the responsibility to Akhilesh. During this period he will see off any possible dissent,” Pradhan said. “The ouster of Amar Singh (from SP) has also brought him to the forefront.” A young contestant in this election, Abhisekh Mishra, said, “Personally, I feel Akhilesh Yadav is the face of the party. The party wants netaji (Mulayam Singh Yadav) to be the chief minister and guide us. But again that has to be a decision the parliamentary board.” The frankness of Akhilesh is also an asset, said Vandita Mishra. “Akhilesh Yadav has the cleanest slate of all in the SP. He has promised good law and order and put unruly SP members unleashing a goondaraj in jails,” she said. It may be mentioned that the last rule of the party in the state was akin to goondaraj with former SP member with a criminal history DP Yadav calling the shots. Who will take the blame if Congress fares badly? None of the leaders were ready to blame Congress general secretary Rahul Gandhi if the party fails to shine on Tuesday. “Rahul Gandhi campaigned aggressively in the state. He addressed 220 meetings during that campaign. The people in-charge of the state should look into the matter if there is a debacle,” said Union Minister and Congress party member Sachin Pilot. The Uttar Pradesh Congress Committee chief Rita Bahuguna Joshi was even ready to sacrifice herself. “Rahul Gandhi only campaigned for us. The election process for the party was under the state leadership,” Joshi said, adding that she would even relinquish her post if needed. Expressing dissatisfaction over the comments made by Joshi on CNN-IBN, Yogendra Yadav said, “It is pure sycophancy at work. UPCC president Rita Bahuguna Joshi was squirming on television, ready to take all blame if the Congress badly fares.”