Life after BJP in Maharashtra: Sorry Shiv Sena, Hindutva isn't the answer

In the final tally of the Maharashtra state assembly election, the bewildered Shiv Sena is probably wondering how it ended squarely in the ’losers’ column while Sharad Pawar’s NCP smugly smiles down at them from the winners’ box.

With the BJP steadfastly refusing to give into any of the Shiv Sena’s post poll demands, the party, which clung firmly to the hope of an eleventh hour reprieve, has been forced to sit in the opposition without a single facesaving sop.

So what’s next for the marathi manoos party now that its dreams of ruling Maharashtra have turned to dust?

One immediate challenge is that of leadership. The constant vacillation of Sena president Uddhav Thackeray has not only heightened the embarrassment of the party, but has also raised some serious questions about him.

“If anything, especially Uddhav Thackeray’s indecision stands out. Such leaders are not useful to an ambitious party. The two sides in the party, pro-opposition benches and pro-power cliques, have made their choices known. The manner in which he has been hemming and hawing only shows that he is more worried about those who hunger for positions instead of the party. He appears to nurse fears that some of them may walk away from his flock”, noted Firstpost columnist Mahesh Vijapurkar on 28 October.

Those fears may well come true in the coming months, and thanks to his own dithering.

According to this report in the Times of India

Keeping Sena legislators on a tight leash and curbing infighting are the biggest challenges that Sena president Uddhav Thackeray faces.

“BJP is keen on creating a split in the Sena legislature party. Lure of power and the red beacon car can be irresistible to many. We will have to keep our eyes wide open to see that BJP doesn’t poach on our territory,” said a Sena MLA.

The humiliating defeat has led to a lot of anger among the party rank and file. But the challenge now for Uddhav, will be to ensure that this anger does not mutate into full blown rebellion.

So what is the Shiv Sena plan of action? Hindutva, of course.

Party leader Uddhav Thackeray already invoked the H-word, in what was seen as an indirect appeal to the RSS, during the Sunday press conference when he warned the BJP against taking the support of the NCP.

“After the elections, anti-Hindu powers are on the rise to finish off the Hindus in Maharashtra. The BJP seems to be abandoning Hindutva but Shiv Sena will continue to fight for it whether we are in power or not”, Thackeray said.

Now that the party has been decisively abandoned by the wayside, we can expect a lot more rhetoric to the same effect.

“Hindutva is the core of our existence which has got us to where we are. It is a constituency which is being targeted by the BJP as well. We will do all that is possible from now to ensure that we dent the BJP’s hold on this electorate,” a senior Sena leader was quoted as saying by the Indian Express .

Of course, the crucial point that the Sena seems to be missing, is that Maharashtra – and indeed the rest of India – are less interested in Hindutva than development and prosperity. Narendra Modi may play to the saffron crowd when required, but he makes sure that vikaas remains the defining focus of his brand.

While the Hindu vote bank is still very much a reality, it isn’t big enough to build the vote bank required to win elections.  In fact, the Shiv Sena campaign in Maharashtra, which still won them 63 seats, soft-pedalled the marathi manoos plank, and played up instead issues of development and anti-corruption. Given the mood of the electorate, going back to the future seems both unwise and unprofitable.

It is time for the Shiv Sena to read the writing on the wall, and put the past behind it.  The old saffron card has worn out, as have old loyalties. The good news is that the BJP may have won, but it’s victory is hardly decisive. Fadnavis’ minority government may rest on the hopes of peeling away NCP and Sena MLAs, but it will remain, as Mahesh Bijapurkar notes, on the back foot for at least an early part of the tenure.

Sena’s best bet is therefore to play its role as opposition leader to the hilt, as it seems ready to do.

According to the Times of India, “Matoshree will have to start re-working its post-BJP strategies, said party watchers. Uddhav knows that bereft of power, the rank and file may be seething with ire. He will have to ensure that the collective anger of Sainiks is directed against the fledgling BJP government. There are indications that Sainiks may begin a crusade against the BJP, both in and outside the assembly. The November 17 conclave of the Sena, to be held at Shivaji Park to commemorate Balasaheb Thackeray’s second death anniversary, will crystallize Sainiks’ mood against BJP, sources said.

Unless Uddhav discovers his inner Balasaheb, we could well be looking at the end of the Shiv Sena era–  despite one of its best ever electoral performances. But all is not lost. Between the Jaitapur power plant and BJP’s support for a separate Vidarbha state, there will be plenty of opportunities to repay the BJP in kind. As a Sena leader told TOI, “We have ample ‘masala’ against BJP. We have spent enough years with them to know their aching nerve. We will give them sleepless nights."