Lessons from Bihar: Jolted BJP, optimistic Cong gear up for Gujarat by-polls

Whether the Congress party’s relief at the BJP’s apparent setbacks in the bypolls in Bihar is shortlived could depend on the outcome of the next big test for the Bharatiya Janata Party – the by-polls in Gujarat. [caption id=“attachment_1656925” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Gujarat CM Anandiben Patel (left) and PM Narendra Modi. Pic courtesy: PMO India/Twitter[/caption] Nine Assembly seats and the Lok Sabha seat Prime Minister Narendra Modi vacated in Vadodara will go to polls on 13 September. All nine Assembly seats fell vacant when their sitting MLAs were elected to the Lok Sabha, including Modi’s own Assembly seat in Maninagar, Ahmedabad. The Indian Express reports that the BJP has set up a three-member observers’ committee and a grievance cell for people. Meanwhile, Chief Minister Anandiben Patel has announced that she wants to see an encore of the Lok Sabha election results. However, while the coming election may be seen by most as a cakewalk for the BJP, it’s clear that the party is not taking any chances. And with good reason. Anandiben posted a quick gain after being picked as Modi’s successor in Gujarat with a victory for the BJP in the Junagadh municipal elections, but the Assembly by-polls will be a different ball game entirely. As the Express report states, the state unit of the party finds itself “without a leader to match Modi’s appeal”. In addition, the state and the party’s best campaign strategist Amit Shah is not around – the BJP president is busy preparing for by-polls in Uttar Pradesh. The Gujarat BJP is also keen to build a next rung of state-level leaders, apparent from the selection of a slew of first-timers. In fact, the BJP is fielding a first-timer even for the Vadodara Lok Sabha seat, deputy mayor Ranjanben Bhatt, who will face Vadodara city Congress president Narendra Ravat. In all, the self-assured certainty that marked the state of Gujarat in the run-up to the Lok Sabha election has dulled. Needless to say, the Gujarat by-elections will be watched closely. For one, it is a political litmus test of sorts for Anandiben. Two, it comes close on the heels of the 10-8 result against the BJP in the just concluded by-polls. And what the RJD-JD(U)-Congress alliance’s success in Bihar has done best is that non-NDA parties have their tails up for the first time since May. JD (U) president Sharad Yadav has said he wants to build a broader team of “like-minded” Opposition parties at the national level. “Bihar sent out a message to the people,” he told The Economic Times in an interview, adding that he is in touch with many leaders and parties and pointing out again that the NDA got only 31 percent of the votes this general election. The Bihar by-poll results also point to some possibilities for the Congress, mainly tactical alliances. As _Firstpost_ has reported , regional satraps such as Siddaramaiah and Captain Amarinder have come good for the beleaguered party. In Gujarat however, the Congress would be fighting mostly for prestige. For, while Lalu Prasad, Nitish Kumar and Sharad Yadav are now offering up a regurgitation of the erstwhile socialist Janata parivar as the only counter to the rise of the BJP, the contest in Gujarat is a simple two-way fight between the Congress and the BJP. Despite the challenges, the BJP holds a comfortable edge in Gujarat, but even an unlikely small setback for the party here will send the Congress into raptures, with likely trickledown effects in poll-bound Maharashtra, where Congress workers’ morale hasn’t ever been lower. For now, the Congress appears to be making some bold decisions in Gujarat. Ravat, the Congress candidate in Vadodara for the LS seat Modi vacated, had been originally selected through the primaries for the contest versus Modi, but was later asked to make way for Rahul Gandhi aide Madhusudan Mistry, who is not being repeated now. According to a report in The Economic Times, Ravat has been in the forefront of anti-BJP campaigns in Vadodara for some time now, inlcuding protests and demonstrations against the BJP-ruled Vadodara Municipal Corporation recently. Incidentally, Ravat lost two civic polls he contested. Ravat takes on the deputy mayor Bhatt, who became famous for slapping a policeman in full public view a few years ago for allegedly accepting a bribe. A women’s wing activist in the BJP, she is reportedly close to the chief minister. The _Indian Expres_s quotes her as saying: “Modiji has been speaking of swachch Bharat and I want to do my bit. A clean Vadodara will be the focus of my campaign. Women’s issues too will be a priority." Seen as something of a political lightweight, Bhatt told NDTV_:_ “I had not even sought a ticket..but the party felt that a woman candidate should be given the ticket. I am elated.” Bhat who has never been an MLA, will agree that for the BJP, the task is cut out: It’s not yet time to relax. Calling the bypolls’ outcome the “BJP’s first post-election knock on the head”, an editorial in The Times of India points out that this will finally “puncture some of the ruling party’s euphoria and may dissipate the catatonic stupor that engulfed many opposition parties after the BJP’s sweeping May verdict”. In Maharashtra, the Shiv Sena has been crying itself hoarse that the coming Assembly elections in October cannot be fought on the detritus of the Modi wave. And nowhere is that more relevant than in Gujarat.