Lessons for stung AAP, BJP: Leaders will survive, soft underbelly may not

It’s the sting season, again. And after Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, the Aam Aadmi Party is feeling the heat. An afternoon press conference on 22 November conducted with extraordinary calm by AAP leader Yogendra Yadav punched plenty of holes into the sting operation carried out by a little known web portal, Media Sarkar. But by then the videos which showed AAP candidates, apparently only too willing to bypass best practice funding norms, had punched several holes into the armour of a party whose very raison d’etre is clean politics. It’s an extraordinary run up to India’s 16th General Election. Narendra Modi and Arvind Kejriwal are running US presidential-style campaigns to win power in Delhi, even if Kejriwal is only targeting the state, not Central, secretariat. Their opponents, fighting two popular anti-establishment individuals, are running American-style dirty tricks campaigns to derail their audacious bids for power. Both Modi and Kejriwal have been personally targeted: Snoopgate and the Anna allegations. But it was inevitable that the attacks would eventually trickle down to the troops.[caption id=“attachment_1244705” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Modi mania. PTI[/caption] Modi and Kejriwal may have amassed enough credibility and popular appeal to fend off personal allegations based on dubious sting operations and calculated leaks. Unfortunately, their troops, the tens and hundreds of candidates who need to win their Assembly seat or Lok Sabha seat to propel their leaders to power are more vulnerable. They are the soft underbelly which opponents can tear into (or sting into) with damaging consequences for their leaders. Now, the Media Sarkar sting on AAP may be doctored or it may be completely genuine. Not all the stung candidates may be crooks, but at least some are candidates to succumb to the temptation of easy funds faster than Kejriwal would like. AAP has a strong leadership, but it’s thin and concentrated in a handful of people. Many candidates are just not of the same caliber. In the end, the voters of Delhi will vote for their local candidate as much as they will vote for their preferred choice of chief minister. AAP may not have the depth to propel Kejriwal to new heights. In fact, the lack of depth may drag him down. Narendra Modi, too, will have to deal with this challenge, particularly in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. In India’s largest state, so crucial to Modi’s prime ministerial ambitions, the BJP has been a marginal force for a decade. In Bihar, it has played second fiddle to the JD(U) for almost a decade. In Uttar Pradesh, the party doesn’t have a glittering list of heavyweights, not even middleweights, who can be attractive candidates in the state’s 80 seats. In Bihar, it will struggle to find 40 top notch candidates. In both states, there is the problematic choice of recalling veterans (spent forces) who may be rejected versus blooding newcomers who may not have the wherewithal to fight a Parliamentary election. And there is always the risk of someone (with a reputation) becoming a victim of a sting operation, running the party’s fortunes in the process. For Kejriwal the die is now cast. It is too late to change candidates. For Modi, there is still time. It may not be enough for him alone to be an attractive candidate. He needs to invest time in choosing the right troops to fight his battle. For once, the Congress is lucky. It is so discredited after a decade in power at the Centre and 15 years in Delhi, that no sting operation or bad candidate is likely to dent an already battered reputation. In the circumstances, all the blows its opponents receive can only be a shot in the arm for India’s grand old party.