Lameduck UPA's survival instincts have just got better

As allies start distancing themselves from the toxic embrace of the Congress-led UPA, analysts are raising questions about the survival chances of the ruling alliance till the scheduled May 2014 general elections. It is the wrong question to ask: survival is easy if you are willing to compromise and sell the country’s long-term interests down the river. What is not easy is to survive with some principles intact. [caption id=“attachment_668097” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and DMK Chief MK Karunanidhi. Reuters[/caption] Contrary to assumptions, the UPA has not become a lameduck because the DMK is pulling out. It has been a lameduck since the second year of its second term in 2010. Since then it has been thrashing about for political purchase, but has never been able to find it. With hindsight the reasons are clear: as scams started erupting like pimples on a teenager’s face, the Congress had been frightened into inaction. As the image of the alliance took a beating and governance collapsed, the allies took fright and started distancing themselves from the Congress. This is the real reason why Trinamool Congress and now DMK are deserting the sinking UPA ship. FDI in retail and the plight of Sri Lankan Tamils are just the excuses they needed to make their exit seem principled. Earlier, the Muslim party, MIM, left the UPA for brighter communal vote harvesting prospects. This leaves the UPA hanging by the apron strings of Mayawati and the pyjama buttons of Mulayam Singh. But this too is not the exact reality. Both are available for a price – and the price for the former is the quotas in promotions bill, and for the latter, Muslim quotas in jobs. Both, Mayawati and Mulayam Singh, presume they are insulated from the Congress’ taint since they are outside supporters of the UPA and claim to back it only for the principled reason of keeping the ‘communal’ BJP out. Either they think the electorate comprises only fools or they are deluding themselves about this. But as long as they think the electorate will buy this, they have no reason to ditch the UPA. But the principal determinant of the longevity of the UPA is not the allies, but the Congress itself. As long as the Congress thinks it cannot win the next election, it will stay in power longer than necessary, if needed by compromising with the devil himself (or herself?). Here’s why we must give the Congress more than a 50:50 chance of surviving for the next six months at least, despite the DMK pullout. First, the DMK’s pullout does not mean it will vote against the UPA in any trust vote. It is only making the Lankan Tamils issue a sticking point; it has a strong stake only in this posturing, not anything else. Take the 18 members of the DMK out of the Lok Sabha total, and the midway mark falls to 260. The Congress alliance has 233+ MPs. It only needs Mayawati’s 21 or Mulayam’s 22 to reach within shouting distance of a win. Getting Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) or some other short-term ally is not unlikely on specific issues, including a trust vote. Second, cabinet clearance for the fiscally ruinous food security bill is a signal that from now on, the Congress will bring only ideas that no one can reject for seeming anti-poor. Muslim quotas will be next. The only tricky issue is reservations in promotions for SC/STs, which Maya wants and Mulayam doesn’t; but is it inconceivable that if Mulayam gets what he wants, he will oppose some of what Maya wants? It is not beyond the realm of possibility that Congress can work out some kind of safeguards that will also mollify Mulayam Singh. Third, as this writer noted yesterday , only the Samajwadi party, Trinamool Congress and the AIADMK have some stake in an early election. This means the Congress can count on the broader, unstated consensus in this Lok Sabha to pull on for at least the next six months without precipitating an election. The BJP is not in a hurry to strike, nor are the Left parties or the remaining regional parties. Even Mulayam Singh is not sure if this is the right time to pull down the government. So, the Congress is on reasonably safe ground right now. Though, as we noted, accidents cannot be ruled out. Fourth, the Congress is introducing poison pill legislation that no political party can oppose, but which will create problems for the next government. Apart from Food Security, there is the Land Acquisition Bill and the Homestead Bills, both of which have the potential to cripple the finances of the next government, not to speak douse the willingness of businessmen to invest. But these are bills no political party will oppose. All these are signals of a weak government planning to do further damage in the interests of staying in power. They show that the Congress is not confident of winning the next time, but is buying time in the hope that it will be saved by an unexpected good development. The moral of the story is this: Lameducks have a higher ability to survive than we think. It is strength that allies fear, not weakness.  Strong leaders can’t be bullied, but weak ones can. Moreover, when a strong ally leaves, the remaining allies grow stronger, as they can drive harder bargains. The TMC exit made Mayawati and Mulayam stronger; the same will happen as DMK leaves. Manmohan Singh’s survival as PM for nine years is evidence that the meek shall inherit - even if what they inherit is chaos. There is no reason why he can’t survive another year.