All you need to know about Haryana's Lok Sabha elections

Haryana, a state with 10 Lok Sabha constituencies, goes to polls today. About 1.55 crore voters will decide the fate of 251 candidates in the fray. Like many other states in India, here too the Narendra Modi wave seems to have swept the voters, as the Congress lags behind. In the 2009 Lok Sabha Elections, the Congress had won nine seats. However, this time according to the Lokniti-CSDS pre-poll survey, the Congress will face a tough battle with the BJP-Haryana Janhit Congress alliance. [caption id=“attachment_1472567” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Haryana goes to polls today. AFP[/caption] The survey suggests that the BJP may manage to get 36 percent and the Congress 30 percent of the vote share and AAP may get around 7 percent. The huge traction towards BJP’s prime ministerial candidate is not just based on his popularity, but also because of the Congress’ misgovernance in the state. What afflicts Congress in Harayana? The Congress has many troubles in the state, be it anti-incumbency or rifts within the party. The chief minister of the state Bhupender Singh Hooda has found himself in the middle of many scams including land scams that also involve Robert Vadra, Sonia Gandhi’s son-in-law. Caste based votes are crucial for the Congress, which is losing ground in the Jat heartland of Haryana. Firstpost had earlier reported that in the last two general elections, the Jat votes had tilted in favour of the Congress to some extent due to the influence of khap panchayats. Some of them had openly extended their support to the party. However, the Congress appears to be out of favour this time. The panchayats are seething in anger over growing unemployment, rising corruption and the worsening conditions of the farmers, who feel cheated for having been coerced into selling their land to land sharks, government and the corporate houses at low prices. In bad times, the leaders of Congress in the state are also abandoning the party. Stalwarts Rao Inderjit Singh, Ramesh Kaushik and Dharambir Singh have joined the BJP. And those who are still part of the Congress are badmouthing it. Senior leaders like Kumari Selja have openly spoken out against the Hooda government, and Hooda made veiled attacks on her in public domain. Selja is not contesting for the polls and has applied for a Rajya Sabha membership. But for the Congress, the only silver lining is the disarray in the opposition alliance. Firstpost had reported that even though the BJP has tied up with Haryana Janhit Congress,  OP Chautala-led Indian National Lok Dal would have been a better ally for the saffron party. The Congress seems to be benefiting the most from the ambivalence of the opposition. The party had won 9 out of 10 seats in 2009, with Hisar being the only seat that went to HJC’s Bhajan Lal. After he passed away in 2011, his son Kuldip Bishnoi (HJC) won the by-election by a wafer thin margin of 6300 votes defeating OP Chautala’s son, Ajay. This time around, the contest is not going to be any easier. The AAP factor The AAP, as it is doing in Delhi, is eating into the votes of both the Congress and the BJP. However, it is doing more harm to the BJP than the Congress since, essentially, it is dividing the anti-Congress votes. These would have gone to the BJP otherwise. Decentralisation, employment, education and good governance is something that the AAP has promised in the state. “We have to make sure that there is a mechanism to depend on small scale industries for jobs and not on foreign companies,” said Naveen Jaihind, AAP candidate from Rohtak. Given its proximity to Delhi, AAP was expected to perform well in Haryana. But the pre-polls survey shows otherwise — a 17 percent drop in their popularity in the state. What lacks in AAP is big names and popular faces. AAP’s newbies pitted against seasoned politicians are unlikely to make a dent in the public perception. (Read more here. ) However, the only seat that AAP is likely to win is Gurgaon where Yogendra Yadav has been fielded. Kumar Vishwas had even said that Yadav may be made the chief minister of Haryana. Why the BJP stands a good chance in Haryana The BJP is cashing in on Congress governments failure in the state and the anti-incumbency. The upper caste vote will also be directed towards the BJP, says the Lokniti-CSDS poll. Over half of the non-Jat upper caste voters (58 percent) are may vote for the BJP-HJC. The OBC vote too tilts towards the BJP-HJC with 34 percent. In addition, the split in the Jat vote, a factor that helped the Congress sweep the state last elections, gives BJP an advantage over the Congress. Despite the AAP factor, Modi has a reason to smile. The party which was in government in Delhi for 49 days is not exactly the epitome of stabilty — something all voters are looking for. Hence a much higher number of the anti-incumbency votes are going to the BJP, than AAP. Mint quotes a resident of Gurgaon as saying, “I want to support a party that can form the government with a majority… I will not support the boneless and spineless party that came to power and ran away in 49 days. So I am left with only one choice.” Constituencies to watch out for There is a multi-cornered contest in almost all the seats in Haryana. However one of the most interesting and tough battle will be in Gurgaon. Here former Congress stalwart Rao Inderjeet Singh is not fighting for the BJP. AAP’s biggest hope Yogendra Yadav is also fighting a four-cornered fight against BJP, Congress’ Dharam Pal and INLD’s Zakhir Hussain. Another close fight will be in Rohtak between CM’s son Deepender Singh Hooda (who was elected the last time), AAP’s Naveen Jaihind, and BJP’s Om Prakash Dhankar. This is has remained a stonghold of the Hoodas for years now. Kurukshetra too is set for a tough battle. Here Naveen Jindla of the Congress is a two time MP, pitted against candidates from BJP, INLD and AAP. Other big names to watch out for this elections are Dushyant Chautala (INLD-Hisar), Kuldeep Bishnoi (HJC-Hisar), and Shruti Chaudhary (Bhiwani-Mahendergarh).