Keshubhai, the most overhyped myth in Gujarat

Narendra Modi is all set to win Gujarat for the third consecutive time. Various exit polls clearly indicate that. However, that he would win the polls was never in doubt — even the rival Congress and his most vociferous critics never hoped that the BJP’s tally would fall below the majority mark, let alone think that Modi would be ousted. The suspense was essentially around the victory margin and the role Keshubhai Patel factor in the elections. All exit polls suggest that Modi would get past 117, his present strength in assembly, and go well beyond 120. If that happens, Brand Modi won’t find any obstacle in going national. Modi has already converted a state election into a national election.  Keshubhai, the 85-year-old RSS veteran, and the Leuva Patel factor were perhaps the most overhyped myth in these elections. The Congress, which was incapable of winning Gujarat or, to be more precise, defeating Modi on its own, got effectively carried away by this hype. By all estimates, the Gujarat Parivartan Party will win only one or two seats, including that of Keshubhai own seat, Visavadar. The C-voter gives a figure of 124 seats to the BJP, 54 to the Congress and four to others. The Headlines Today-ORG exit polls give 118-28 seats to the BJP, 50-56 to the Congress (the previous Congress score was 59) and 1-2 to the GPP. The News 24-Today’s Chanakya exit polls predict 140 (plus-minus 11 seats) to the BJP, 40 seats to the Congress (plus-minus 11) and others 2(plus-minus 3). The C-voter figures suggest that youth and women voted overwhelmingly for the BJP. Even 23 per cent Muslims voted for the BJP as compared to the 70 per cent for the Congress. Modi clearly led in voting pattern of all castes and communities with exception of Dalits and tribals who seem to have preferred the Congress to the ruling BJP. But these are predictions, the final outcome could be entirely different, as some past experiences have proved. Among the much debated Leuva Patels who were supposed to become Modi’s nemesis in these elections, 49 per cent voted for the BJP, 24 per cent for the Congress and another 24 per cent for Keshubhai’s GPP. A high voter turnout was always going to help Modi. Even some Congress leaders conceded that the game was lost after the polling percentage — at 71 per cent — in the first phase of elections broke all records. It was up by over 11 per cent from 2007. The second phase of polling witnessed roughly similar voter turnout. The biggest contrast between the Congress and the BJP’s poll campaign and winnability was while the Congress candidates had to fight elections on their own merit, the BJP’s candidates were doing it riding on Modi’s charisma. Modi’s larger than life image provided a protective shield around them. As Modi himself would say “as you press the button on lotus, your vote would be registered in my account.” His party strategists’ focus was to pull voters out to the voting booth and it seems to have worked. If Modi built the entire poll campaign around himself, the Congress chose to make itself faceless. Congress president Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi were completely missing from the Congress ad campaign. If Modi kicked off his poll campaign by way of Vivekanand yatra, months ahead of the elections, the Congress waited endlessly for the its two foremost crowd pullers, Sonia and Rahul Gandhi. The reluctant three-day, three public rallies each, which Rahul Gandhi did never pick up any momentum and the issues that he raised, including the Mahatma Gandhi-Motilal-Jawaharlal Nehru narrative and number of days assembly met got a strong rebuttal from Modi in his own characteristic aggressive sarcastic style. The Congress’s total negation of any development work in the state and their leaders’ penchant to talk about erratic or no power supply could not strike a chord with the people. Even Modi’s worst critics in the state admit that there was 24-hour power supply across the state, including in villages and eight-hour power supply to agricultural farms. The exit polls have added to the excitement of Gujarat polls. In the hype over Gujarat polls, however, many seem to have missed Himachal Pradesh, where exit polls suggest that the Congress has an edge over the ruling BJP. The Congress would be very happy with that, one each in the final score card.