KDMC polls: Raj Thackeray holds the aces, but the game is wide open

by Smita Deshmukh The festival of lights may be around the corner, but the coming week will witness a season political slug fest in Maharashtra. With both major political parties – BJP and Shiv Sena - desperate to take charge of Mumbai’s satellite towns – Kalyan and Dombivli, the battle to achieve the numbers has thrown open the game of political alliances wide open till the new mayor takes oath on 11 November. The magic figure is 61 and both the BJP (42) and Sena (52) are leaving no stone unturned to grab the power in the 122-seat (there is re-election for two seats) Kalyan Dombivli Municipal Corporation (KDMC). At the centre of this game is Raj Thackeray, chief of Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), who despite a dismal performance (nine corporators to 27 in 2010) suddenly finds himself a kingmaker. With additional nine independent corporators also in the field, the KDMC game is now wide open. [caption id=“attachment_275240” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Raj Thackeray. AFP[/caption] In the last 24 hours, the BJP has already been wooing the MNS. It is a well-known fact that senior leaders like Vinod Tawde, Ashish Shelar and even Nitin Gadkari share a good equation with Thackeray and the common ground of coming together could be a development agenda for the satellite towns – a subject close to Raj Thackeray’s heart. BJP, which wants to enter the Sena stronghold of KDMC, as well as Thackeray, had viciously attacked Sena on issue of corruption and poor civic infrastructure during the poll campaign. The Sena, on the other hand, seems to be working on a dual strategy. There is a section of Sena insiders who feel it is the right time for MNS to support them in KDMC as they are the single largest party and to also keep the BJP out. But Eknath Shinde, the party’s strongman and state cabinet (Public Works Department) minister, who was made in charge of the KDMC campaign, will surely be working behind closed doors to get nine independent corporators into the Sena fold. Shinde’s absence from yesterday’s cabinet meeting was a clear indication that he is clearly working on a strategy in KDMC. The polls may have made him a kingmaker, but this is perhaps the biggest political test of Raj Thackeray. As of now, he is adopting the wait-and-watch policy. Quitting Sena in 2005 to form the MNS in 2006, Thackeray attracted huge crucial cadre from across the state, with many writers and thinkers supporting his cry for the Marathi cause. He continued to be in the news for his aggressive stance against North Indians. However, the party has been on a downslide since winning 13 seats in the state assembly elections of 2009 and the number reduced to mere one seat in the 2014 state elections. Senior MNS leaders like Pravin Darekar, Ram Kadam, Vasant Geete, Ramesh Patil and Kashinath Megal joined the BJP, creating a huge crisis. Existing leaders of the MNS – Bala Nandgaokar, Shishir Shinde and Nitin Sardesai — have little political impact to rejuvenate the party. Thackeray’s rallies still attract crowds, but the demoralised cadre and political decimation may force him to make the best of this latest kingmaker opportunity in KDMC to save his 9-year-old party. So what are his options? Alliance with BJP will open Thackeray to huge questioning and create credibility crisis since he has attacked the party on every possible issue – meat ban, Pak artists, not to mention his barbs on PM Narendra Modi. Insiders feel that a BJP tie-up will also prove disastrous for Thackeray’s chances in the upcoming 2017 municipal polls in Thane, Mumbai and other big eight cities in the state. As it is always observed, the coming together of Raj and Uddhav Thackeray is stuck in a deadlock of who will make that first move. Observers who know both the warring cousins feel it is a clash of egos. But this time around, Raj is surely running out of options. Protecting his nine corporators from the Sena and BJP is his first big task. It will surely be an entertaining few days before new political equations are formed in Maharashtra. Smita Deshmukh is a senior journalist and communications expert based in Mumbai. Follow her on @smitadeshmukh