Karunanidhi's 11th hour drama: Is it for real this time?

So finally DMK chief has pulled out of the UPA government over the Sri Lankan Tamil issue. Contrary to speculations, he is not interested in supporting the government even from outside. On his own, Karunanidhi didn’t say that he would restore his support if the Congress and the UPA accede to his demands. He said he would if the Congress mends its ways, in response to a question by a reporter. A simple reading of this move indicates that the Congress seems uninterested in moving any amendment that will radicalise the second US resolution against Sri Lanka at the UNHRC. Perhaps the DMK leader has got enough hints that the UPA will support the resolution like last time, but might just stop with that. [caption id=“attachment_666609” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Will Karunanidhi stick to his guns this time? PTI[/caption] Under normal circumstances, it could have been alright, but given the overall unrelenting mood in the state and consistent political oneupmanship from the AIADMK, which has been steadfast in its demand for declaring President Rajapaske as a war criminal, the DMK had to up the ante as well. What better way than jumping out of a sinking ship at the 11th hour? The only other reason for a politically wily Karunanidhi, if not to hedge against non-action by the Congress, is to cash in on a possible positive decision by the government. In such case, he can claim that it was because of his tough stand that the government changed its decision. But going by the history of the UPA, or rather the Congress, so far, it looks unlikely. Karunanidhi’s detractors will still question his intentions and sincerity because in the past he always let the situations pass, even when they were really grave, for the interests of his party and family. His exigencies, mainly the 2G case and the alleged involvement of his daughter Kanimozhi, still exist and some might say that this a pre-planned drama to score some political brownie points at a time when agitating students have completely trumped politicians. What is still interesting, however, is Finance Minister P Chidambaram’s assurance to Congress workers in Tamil Nadu last week. He had said there would be good news on the issue and even asked Congress workers to spread the word around. Firstpost reported on 17 March: “My sentiments, your sentiments, and the sentiments of all Tamils is that if the resolution contains such a demand, India should support and vote in favour of it,” he said, hoping there would be ‘good news’ and people should wait till 22 March (when the vote is to take place in UNHRC)." “There will be good news, good news. Maintain patience till then. I am confident and I am giving you this positive feeling, continue spreading this among all till 22 March,” he had said. So, is this a joint ploy by the Congress and the DMK? In politics, one cannot rule out anything. To questions from reporters, Karunanidhi did say that he would withdraw his decision to pull out if the government accedes to his demands by Friday. Since he didn’t say that voluntarily, one may conclude that perhaps the withdrawal is for real this time. There have been speculations that the DMK was constrained to find non-Congress allies for the coming elections because of the latter’s lukewarm response to the Sri Lankan Tamil issue. Unlike in the past, it will be the DMK’s biggest political issue for the 2014 elections and joining hands with Congress. If the latter doesn’t throw in its lot with the Tamils, it will be certainly suicidal for the DMK. For the DMK, there is still room for political maneuvering - parties such as DMDK, the Left and pro-Tamil groups on the one side and the BJP and its allies on the other are still open for negotiations. Therefore, this is also a political move in preparation of 2014. A lead time of a year is perhaps good enough to wash its alliance-sins and re-invent itself as a pro-Tamil party. 2G is important, but political survival is absolutely unavoidable.