For the Congress, the Karnataka election results are both good and bad news; but for the BJP it is just bad news. The good news for the Congress is that it has been able to wrest back one of its southern strongholds, but the bad news is that people are merciless when it comes to corruption. At the going rate of exposes, by the time the Lok Sabha elections are due, the Congress could be in deep trouble and the electorate could be even more punishing. On the other hand, the results are bad all the way for the BJP. In the last one year, this is the fourth state that they are losing. The trend we have seen in Himachal, Uttarakhand and Jharkhand continued in Karnataka as well. Now the BJP has only four states with them - Gujarat, Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Goa - as against the Congress’ 13 states, including those where they are in alliance with others. Some also read the Karnataka verdict as a result of the BJP votes splitting because of former strongman BS Yeddyurappa. Although electorate behavior is more complex than what simple poll-arithmetic indicates, he probably has cannibalised the prospects of the BJP in at least 35 seats. [caption id=“attachment_767005” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Congress celebrations after the Karnataka elections. AFP[/caption] But the issue is deeper - Yeddy had to be purged by the party under duress because of corruption, and BJP has also lost because of corruption. Since the very foundation of the BJP’s victory in the last election was corruption, issues like the Bellary brothers, mining mafia and so on affected the party from both within and outside. Therefore, the verdict against BJP in Karnataka is against corruption on two counts - one, electoral gains resulting from corruption are unsustainable because it will ultimately consume your very existence as corruption is disruptive; and two, people will reject you because you are corrupt. In Tamil Nadu, the DMK had only one reason for its electoral debacle - the 2G scam which broke just before the polls - despite the Karunanidhi government doing a fairly good job. How will the BJP re-organise itself in Karnataka now? Bring an allegedly corrupt Yeddy back? Bring the Bellary brothers and their mining mafia back? (Incidentally the Bellary proxies have won four seats). Does it have enough regenerative capacity to get back to its original size and shape? It’s such a difficult set of questions to answer. This is bad news for the Congress as well because they too reportedly have many moneybags among their MLAs and ranks. The only difference is the source - for the BJP it was mining and for the Congress, it is real estate. The real estate investment in politics will certainly look for their returns sooner than later and the Congress is also likely to fall into the same trap. And if the moneybags are tactlessly avaricious, its results may be seen in the Lok Sabha elections itself. For the time being, the Congress might think that it has a fair chance of getting back most of the 19 seats that the BJP has won last time. If they are not careful, they could be proved wrong. It’s bizarre that our political leaders hate corruption - Manmohan Singh to Rahul Gandhi. Our electorate hates it too. But our politics cannot survive without it. Rajiv Gandhi in his Congress centenary speech in Mumbai in 1985 spoke of leaders who were “enmeshing the living body of the party in their net of avarice”. He even said that corruption was not only tolerated, but was regarded as a hallmark of leadership. He berated “power-brokers” within the party “who dispense patronage to convert a mass movement into a feudal oligarchy.” Twenty years since then, the metastases of corruption that he seemingly wanted to cure of his party, has eaten into every part of its living body and its government. Metastases are difficult or rather impossible to cure permanently; but some radical surgeries and resections do help. Will the Karnataka elections, that the Congress leaders on Wednesday used to save their faces from the rebuke of the Supreme Court, compel the high-command to do something radical? Karnataka is not a verdict in favour of the Congress, but against the BJP, or rather against corruption. Besides all that the Congress should do in addressing corruption, the BJP should also realise that Narendra Modi is not a super-steroid that will work in all settings. In real life, steroids have to be tapered off lest it become ineffective and harmful. Referring to its own India Shining ballyhoo should be helpful. It is highly likely that one gets lost in one’s own hyperbole. What will be the trend in the six states that go to polls towards the end of the year? Perhaps at least Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh will arrest the BJP’s losing trend, but there is nothing that will favor the Congress. If it has truly understood the reason for the verdict in Karnataka, it is high time that it did something radical about corruption. But then, the question is when the entire body is metastasised, is there anything left to be redeemed?
If the Congress has truly understood the reason for the verdict in Karnataka, it is high time that it did something radical about corruption.
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