Karnataka exit polls get it mostly right: BJP emerges as single largest party, JD(S) key in hung Assembly

The results of the Karnataka polls are in: The BJP emerged as the single largest party with 104 seats, although it fell short of getting a majority in the Assembly.  Meanwhile, Congress and JD(S), who bagged 78 and 38 seats respectively, agreed to a post-poll alliance.

After Rahul Gandhi's Grand Old Party agreed to back Deve Gowda's outfit, the latter sent a letter to Governor Vajubhai Vala and staked a claim to form the government. BJP chief ministerial candidate BS Yeddyurappa meanwhile, also met the governor and pressed his claim.

As the parties jockey for position, it is worth comparing the election results to the exit polls: Six of eight such polls gave a clear edge to the BJP over the Congress and predicted a hung Assembly. Thus, most exit polls painted a fairly accurate picture:

Agency Congress BJP JD(S) + Others
Times Now-VMR 90-103 80-93 31-39 2-4
India Today-Axis My India 106-118 79-92 22-30 1-4
Republic TV-Jan ki Baat 73-82 95-114 32-43 3-4
Dighvijay News 76-80 103-107 31-35
NewsX-CNX 72-78 102-110 35-39 3-5
Today's Chanakya 73 120 26  3
News Nation 71-75 105-109 36-40 3-5
ABP News Cvoter 87-99 97-109 21-30 1-8

These are the major points which most exit polls accurately predicted:

BJP workers celebrate saffron party's performance in Karnataka. PTI

BJP workers celebrate saffron party's performance in Karnataka. PTI

BJP emerges as single largest party

Five out of eight exit polls correctly predicted the saffron party's performance: Republic TV-Jan ki BaatDighvijay NewsNewsX-CNXNews Nation and ABP News Cvoter. Today's Chanakya wrongly predicted that BJP would cross the majority mark and win 120 seats.

Times Now-VMR and India Today-Axis My India, which claimed that Congress would emerge as the single largest party, missed the mark entirely.

No clear majority

Seven of eight polls correctly predicted no single party would be able to cross the majority mark (112).

JD(S) emerges as key player

Most exit polls also predicted that because no single party would get a clear majority, JD(S) would emerge as the key player. The most accurate exit polls that predicted the number of seats JD(S) would win were: Times Now-VMR exit poll (31-39 seats), Republic TV-Jan ki Baat exit poll (32-43 seats), Newx-CNX exit poll (35-39 seats), and News Nation exit poll (36-40 seats). The Dighvijay News exit polls (31-35 seats) was in the ballpark.

Click here to follow LIVE updates on the Karnataka Assembly Election 2018 results

Firstpost is now on WhatsApp. For the latest analysis, commentary and news updates, sign up for our WhatsApp services. Just go to Firstpost.com/Whatsapp and hit the Subscribe button.

Updated Date: May 15, 2018 19:01 PM

Also See