Karnataka Cabinet reshuffle ruffles feathers: Congress should either brace or salvage

The CM should’ve been dignified. I’m not the chappal that he wears, which he can wear when he wants and cast away when he doesn’t. Had he requested me to step down to make way and give opportunity to others, I would’ve gladly resigned. He should have sent me off with respect. At a press conference in his house on Tuesday, this is how the recently-ejected Karnataka Minister of Housing, MH Ambareesh reacted to CM Siddaramaiah’s recent Cabinet reshuffle in Karnataka. A three-time MLA from the politically influential Vokkaliga stronghold of Mandya and more importantly, an enormously popular film star with a cult-like fan following, Ambareesh’s stinging angst was also expressed by him resigning from his legislatorship. Siddaramaiah’s government got a taste of the fallout when the entire Kannada film industry demonstrated a powerful show of strength by condemning the government and called for a bandh of all film-related activities, reports the Kannada daily, Kannada Prabha. Equally, Nanjanagud located about 60 km from Mandya was witness to a bandh called by the supporters of another dropped (Revenue) Minister, Srinivasa Prasad who dubbed Siddaramaiah as “a known betrayer who never recalls people who helped him in crisis.” The significant factor in Prasad’s case is the fact that the chief minister’s constituency, Varuna falls in Nanjanagud taluk. As the Indian Express reports, the heads of all local bodies including zilla and village panchayats offered to resign en masse showing solidarity with Prasad. Even as I write this, the dropped ministers, a good number of angry MLAs and their supporters show no signs of stopping their protests: While MLA Shivamurti has begun a dharna right in front of Vidhana Soudha, Malaka Reddy and Malikayya Guttedar have threatened to resign. Legislators ST Somashekhar, Bhairati Basavaraj, Muniratna, Qamarul Islam and Baburao Chinchanasur have raised the pitch against Mallikarjun Kharge, whose son was inducted into the reshuffled cabinet. [caption id=“attachment_2303734” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah’s assured exit from the party, if he’s asked to step down, will mark the end of the Congress in the state. AFP.[/caption] In a line, the recent Cabinet reshuffle has led to a massive bloodbath in Karnataka Congress. That dissidents have also “dared” to speak about the High Command in belittling language shows the true extent of this dissidence, which threatens to blow the Congress apart much before the 2018 polls. As this _Firstpost_ analysis obliquely says, “One question that the whole operation throws up is whether [Digvijaya] Singh and Siddaramaiah will be able to cope with the post-surgical complications that have already begun to show up… history of Karnataka’s politics shows that any political exercise aimed at ‘pleasing all’ ends up in ‘pleasing none’.” Ever since he became chief minister, Siddaramaiah has been perpetually caught in a catch-22 situation owing to his status of a gatecrasher-CM in the Congress. The current eruption of rebellion that shows no sign of abating was bound to occur in one or the other form, given how senior leaders and various anti-Siddaramiah factions constantly made no bones about their hostility against him as the CM. If the reshuffle was the result of sustained pressure, the logical rebellious outcome that we now see is the other side of the same coin. To the credit of his political acumen, Siddaramaiah had perhaps foreseen this consequence and had tried to insulate himself for three long years by establishing his own coterie. Unfortunately, this insulation also led to his isolation and caused him to misread the nature and exact extent of the rebellion that has now erupted. He either overestimated his own strength to contain it or went ahead with the reshuffle with an attitude of hubris. Consider this _Firstpost_ piece  that shows exactly how badly Siddaramaiah has bungled: …the signal from the high command was not clearly read by the chief minister. The point about consensus from the high command was meant to cover all aspects of the reshuffle. It obviously meant that he should also speak to those whom he plans to drop from the ministry…. Siddaramaiah appears to have simply sent the list of ministers to be dropped from the ministry to the Raj Bhavan and gone ahead with the reshuffle…supporters of those dropped and aspirants indulged in arson and violence. The chief minister, perhaps, forgot an old lesson from mentors like Ramakrishna Hegde and HD Deve Gowda to avoid dissidence, mollycoddling. It appears that Siddaramaiah has realised the enormity of the rebellion but this realisation has come too late. By sending the new minister Tanveer Sait as peace messenger, he has embarked on an aggressive wooing of Dalit strongman Srinivasa Prasad, who when he had gotten wind of his impending ejection began praising PM Modi. As we saw earlier, Prasad has enough political clout to seriously nix Siddaramaiah’s chance at victory in the 2018 polls in his own Varuna constituency. Equally, the local media is rife with speculation that dissident MLAs are searching for “safe zones” to contest from, in the 2018 polls. However this may be, the Congress High Command won’t ask Siddaramaiah to step down, although his political capital has dwindled significantly in these three years. The reason: sheer political survival by holding on to the only large state in the Congress’ kitty. Siddaramaiah’s assured exit from the party, if he’s asked to step down, will mark the end of the Congress in Karnataka. And so the High Command has almost washed its hands off the ongoing crisis by transferring its management completely to Siddaramaiah. While the Congress is painting the reshuffle as “a “war Cabinet” to fight the 2018 Assembly election, the reality is that the party is only postponing its certain defeat in the 2018 polls. [caption id=“attachment_2223176” align=“alignright” width=“380”]  File photo of Karnataka Congress workers. AFP[/caption] The perception on the ground for at least two years is that Siddaramaiah has turned out to be the worst ever chief minister who has failed to govern and has run the state’s economy to the ground with his rampant freebie policies, coupled with investors exiting the state. On the socio-political front, his casteist and communal policies have evoked widespread condemnation and outrage. Meanwhile, the Opposition has wasted no time. Both the JD(S) and the BJP have immediately swung into action. A re-energised BJP under Yeddyurappa’s leadership is in close touch with Malaka Reddy, who is expected to announce his decision on 23 June. Equally, former PM Deve Gowda on his part is trying to pull Ambareesh into the JD(S), of which he was a member in the 1990s. Deve Gowda is also smarting under the humiliation of the Congress’ clandestine operation of luring eight JD(S) MLAs to cross-vote in the recent Legislative Council and Rajya Sabha polls. Come 2018 polls, the current Congress rebels will most certainly work against the party, if they don’t already exit the party much ahead of the polls. As we observe, the High Command at present seems in no position to control these rebels given how the First Family’s own future is uncertain in the wake of AugustaWestland and National Herald scandals, and with the sword of Vadra’s numerous deals hanging over it. Even in the event that the Karnataka CM is replaced by another leader, and Siddaramaiah remains in the Congress, the sorry fact is that he has made the chair incredibly hot; any leader occupying it will be singed. And no chief minister would want to lead such a party in the polls and don the mantle of leading it to an electoral disaster.