Kanimozhi to Raja: the RS elections will hold the key to future alliances in TN

Poll alliances are hard to predict in Tamil Nadu, where the situation is still amorphous except for the gravitation of some small parties towards the DMK. But, by mid-July, there will be clear indications on the main formations because that’s when DMK’s Kanimozhi and CPI’s D Raja would need the support of the MLAs of other parties for their re-election to Rajya Sabha. Both their terms expire on 24 July. [caption id=“attachment_806077” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  DMK leader Kanimozhi.[/caption] After the rout in the 2011 state elections, the DMK has only 23 MLAs in the assembly which is far from sufficient to send Kanimozhi to the upper House for a second term. They need the support of another 11 MLAs. Where will it come from? Similarly, the most visible face of CPI in Delhi, D Raja will have the support of only eight MLAs in the assembly and will need another 26. Where will they come from? This is where one is likely to get a preview of the future alliances, wherein both the DMK and the CPI are going to over-draw from possible tie-ups for 2014. DMK from film actor Vijayakanth’s DMDK, and CPI from AIADMK, although none of the parties have so far hinted which way they are going to swing. The DMDK, which has a highly useful 10 percent vote share in the state, is a relatively new party that is being actively wooed by both the Congress and the DMK. As an ally of the AIADMK, Vijayakanth was an extremely bitter critic of Karunanidhi during the assembly elections and his campaign had been intensely personal against the DMK leader and his family. But once the elections were over, the relationship between the DMDK and the AIADMK deteriorated fast with the AIADMK government even slapping several cases against Vijayakanth and suspending his MLAs from the assembly for a year. He also alleged that the AIADMK was trying to break his party by encouraging defection by five MLAs. Five of his party members in the Assembly are not with him any more. Since it cannot go it alone in 2014, Vijayakanth will have to choose either DMK or the Congress. With the stock of the Congress so low and with practically no alliance-partners available, Vijayakanth will be forced to bury the past and join hands with Karunanidhi. That’s where Kanimozhi’s election will become a predictor. If Vijayakanth chooses to support her candidature, it will be certain that DMDK will be part of the DMK-front, which will then look considerably formidable. The Dalit party VCK is almost certain to be in the same formation. Similarly, if the AIADMK supports Raja, it will be more or less certain that the Left parties will be in its fold. The only other party in the front will be Vaiko’s MDMK, which is left with no other option because congenitally it’s inimical to the DMK. The only other party of consequence, the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), although appeared initially to be a possible partner for the AIADMK, will most likely end up nowhere. It’s violent efforts recently to consolidate backward castes against the Dalits miserably backfired. The sad party of the alliance and Rajya Sabha story will be the Congress. The Rajya Sabha term of the Tamil Nadu Congress Committee President BS Gnanadesikan is also coming to an end in July, but he will have absolutely nobody to help add the extra numbers required. If the DMDK goes with the DMK, the Congress cannot have any new Raja Sabha seats till the next assembly elections due in 2016. Its strength will also progressively weaken in the coming months. The terms of two other high profile Rajya Sabha MPs of the Congress - GK Vasan and Jayanti Natarajan - will end in February 2014. That will leave the party with just two MPs from the state - S Natchiappan and Mani Shankar Aiyar, whose terms will end in 2016. The consequences of the alliance will affect the representation of the party from Tamil Nadu not only in Rajya Sabha, but also in Parliament. Without an alliance with either the DMK or the AIADMK, it won’t be able to win a single seat in the state. In such a situation, Finance Minister P Chidambaram will face the prospect of locating a Rajya Sabha seat from outside his home state.