Kalyan-Dombivli and other Maha polls on 1 Nov: Ranged against truant Shiv Sena, will they be good omen or bad for BJP in Bihar?

By Smita Deshmukh While the nation’s attention is focused on the outcome of the Bihar elections, a couple of crucial municipal polls in Maharashtra are turning out to be a crucial test for the Devendra Fadnavis government, which has been under attack for going ‘soft’ on its aggressive alliance partner Shiv Sena. Even as the alliance completes one year in office today, BJP-Shiv Sena leaders have spent the last two years viciously attacking each other and threatening resignations, turning their one year office into a complete political circus. The truth is that the BJP’s relationship with the Sena is sinking lower every passing day. And within 24 hours of the first anniversary celebrations, Fadnavis will plunge into his biggest electoral test post the 2014 Assembly triumph. [caption id=“attachment_2489998” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Representational image. AFP [/caption] Yes, Sunday (1 November) is D-Day for Fadnavis. How he and his party perform on that day might well determine how long the alliance with the Sena will last or how soon it may snap. Along with the two crucial elections of civic bodies of Kalyan-Dombivli and Kolhapur, 67 municipal councils are going to polls Sunday. Fadnavis, who has not tasted any electoral success post the 2014 Assembly win, desperately needs some good news this time to prove he is in charge, along with sending a strong signal to Sena, which has been consistently gaining ground and undermining his government within a year. Though ruled by the Sena-BJP alliance, all parties are now going solo for the 122 seats of Kalyan-Dombivli Municipal Corporation (KDMC). The stakes are high for everyone – Sena wants to grab power to embarrass Fadnavis further, while Congress and NCP want to regain lost ground. It is do or die for Maharashtra Navnirman Sena also, which been on a downslide for a while. Though the state BJP may believe that the educated, middle class residents of satellite cities of Kalyan-Dombivli could well be their natural vote bank, this poll is far from easy. The BJP is also desperate to add the semi-urban and rural belts of Kolhapur to its kitty. With results to be out within 24 hours, it would be interesting to see which political party in Maharashtra celebrates Diwali with more fervour. The BJP’s electoral performance post 2014 has been far from impressive. In fact, their loss of Bhandara-Gondiya zilla parishad polls to Congress-NCP, after ruling it for 10 years, was seen as the first major setback. In the next municipal polls of Navi Mumbai and Aurangabad, Shiv Sena scored big. To add insult to injury, the civic polls of Vasai-Virar region saw just one BJP corporator making it to the civic body. Just like the pattern seen at the Centre, here too the face of BJP is CM Fadnavis, despite presence of some good local leaders. The Shiv Sena is busy playing the dual role of being in government as well as the opposition – to the hilt, often creating embarrassing situations for the CM. This unholy alliance, which was formed after a record number of meetings and consultations, has been in a state of conflict from day one. The Sena’s outcry is largely based on Fadnavis’s decision to keep their ministers out of crucial cabinet decisions. Uddhav Thackeray often talks about how the BJP fails to treat his party on equal terms. The Maharashtra government allowing the book release function of Kasuri, a former Pak diplomat, didn’t go well with Sena, whose stand on Pak artistes is giving headaches to Fadnavis. Going solo, both parties have left no stone unturned to win more seats this time around. Fadnavis attempted a bit of gerrymandering when he tried to throw 27 crucial villages out of KDMC to undermine the Sena support base, but the decision was reversed by the state election commission. The battle with the Sena has delayed his cabinet expansion twice, unnerving the small parties supporting the BJP. The slow process of appointments in state-run corporations is making the party cadre anxious. The Sena, on the other hand, has been eyeing the rebels from the Congress, NCP and MNS and is confident of victory. Despite daily hiccups, the BJP-Sena alliance has somehow managed to survive a year. But will this tight rope act continue? The BJP wants to reassert its dominant position in the state, something that the Sena has and will continue to contest. Observers believe an anti-BJP result in Bihar and a victory in crucial municipal polls here, may enthuse Uddhav Thackeray to recalibrate his options. No wonder this municipal poll has become the battlefield of the small and mighty in Maharashtra. Nationally, for the BJP, 8 November is a very crucial day when the Bihar results will be out. A setback in Maharashtra local polls just six days before that will be a bad omen that the ruling party will be desperate to avoid. Smita is a senior journalist and communications specialist. Follow her on twitter @smitadeshmukh