J&K polls: Split mandate means only alliance between PDP-BJP is legitimate

The election results of Jammu & Kashmir, while tremendously successful from a voter turnout perspective that the separatists may have found galling, has thrown up a real puzzle for government formation. Looking at the final seat tally, the media has declared the result as “hung” since the single largest party, the PDP, got only 28 seats (far below the halfway mark of 44 in an 87-member assembly), and the runner-up (BJP) got 25. The losers, National Conference and Congress, got 15 and 12 seats. “Others” got seven. The arithmetic suggests that three combinations are feasible: one is a PDP-Congress-independents combine that could have 47 seats between them. It would be a messy coalition where every partner would be a law unto itself. But if this alliance is thinkable, so should a BJP-NC-independents version, which gives us the same 47 seats. It would be equally messy, apart from lacking a mandate, since the voters chose to evict the NC from power. The only viable combination is that between PDP and BJP, which would give the alliance 53 seats. But this leaves us with an alliance of ideological incompatibility – with the PDP seen as largely a Muslim party of the Valley and the BJP as the Hindu party of Jammu. Omar Adbullah of the National Conference was salivating at the prospect of a PDP-BJP combination, since it could be potentially “suicidal”. But suicidal or not, this is the only possible combination that has a chance of working since it would respect the real mandate of the people of J&K. The right way to look at the results is to view it as three different mandates in the three regions of J&K: the electorate voted for the PDP in the Kashmir Valley, it voted for the BJP in Jammu and for the Congress in Ladakh (it won three out of four Ladakh assembly seats). Given that Ladakh is a very small region in terms of population (just 2,90,492 people), we can say that we effectively have a dual mandate – different ones for the Valley and Jammu. Morally, thus, the only legitimate government is one that at least takes the mandates of the two biggest regions into account – and this is the logic of a PDP-BJP coalition. The electorate voted against NC and Congress this time. They are the ones who should not be part of any government. Can the PDP and BJP ideologies coexist? Answer: Only if both of them redefine their core principles and work out a common approach for the sake of the state. [caption id=“attachment_1795497” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  J&K voters gave three different verdicts in its three separate regions: PDP in the valley, BJP in Jammu and Congress-NC in Ladakh[/caption] For PDP, the key issues relate to what the valley needs – peace, less army visibility in civilian areas, and an assurance of regional autonomy. Its key demands could be withdrawal of AFSPA, etc. For the BJP, the issues that matter are discrimination against Jammu (and Ladakh), bringing the valley closer to the national mainstream, and removal of article 370, which gives J&K special status. The only logical meeting point will be a PDP-BJP focus on developing Jammu region, possibly with the setting up of empowered regional development boards. The logic of autonomy cuts both ways: autonomy for the valley cannot mean domination over Jammu and Ladakh. As for the BJP, the only way to take the contentious issue of article 370 out of the way is to subsume it in the broader discussion about devolving more power to the states. The issue is not whether J&K should be treated as special, but whether other Indian states are undeserving of the same regional autonomy that J&K now enjoys? Once there is agreement on this, article 370 can walk into the sunset without anyone, including the valley Kashmiris, regretting it too much. The debate should not be article 370, but regional autonomy. Another issue is the acknowledgement and reversal of the ethnic cleansing of Pandits from the valley. Here again, the PDP and BJP need to take a rational decision, since no valley outfit, including the separatists, believes that Pandits do not belong to J&K. However, with two generations of Pandits now having lived in exile in Jammu and other parts of India, the issue is less likely to be contentious. The focus should be on creating the right atmosphere for some of them to return to where they lived before, not their herding into ghettos in the valley with extreme police protection. Living like a hunted minority in the valley is no living at all. The solution thus depends on peace and secular attitudes returning to the valley. That may take some time, and for this it is the PDP that needs to ensure that the hothead Islamists of the valley are tamed, and the BJP has to ensure that the army’s protective role in civilian areas is reduced by an expansion of a trained and committed local police force. A PDP-BJP coalition can work if both parties realise that their job is to unite Jammu with Kashmir, and give Ladakh a fair deal, not live in denial that the electorate gave the state three different mandates. But one thing is clear: Only a PDP-BJP alliance will have real legitimacy.