J&K polls: BJP, PDP like oil and water, can't form govt together, say experts

Is the verdict of Jammu and Kashmir polls a mess, a vote for Indian democracy or an opportunity for bitter rivals to bury their differences?

The verdict from the state is subject to several interpretations and has opened up a myriad of possibilities in terms of alliance formations.

The PDP has emerged as the single largest party with 28 seats, followed by the BJP that won 25 seats. The ruling National Conference, that many had said would be routed, has mustered up 15 seats. The Congress has won 12 seats, but it has done better than expected.

When asked if the confused voter has created a mess, Congress’ Karan Singh told, “People came out and voted. That is a great achievement. Any democratic verdict is not a mess. It is a fractured verdict, because the state itself is multi-polar. It is a verdict which has to be addressed and looked at in a positive manner.”

The outcome may have, in fact, forced the major parties to bury their differences and reach out to rivals, even if under democratic compulsions.

Soon after the results started coming in, BJP president Amit Shah said, “All options are open for us, BJP will decide on how other parties respond or initiate.”

Even the PDP is mulling all permutations and combinations. PDP’s options are either to align with BJP or cobble together a government with the support of Congress and some independents. Support from NC had never been considered as an option by political observers.

And while they say no one is a permanent friend or an enemy in politics, introducing a new element in the scenario, Omar Abdullah told PTI that it was for PDP to approach him. “I don’t rule out or rule in anything thereafter,” he said. Reminded that NC’s support to PDP has never been envisaged, Omar said, “Was Nitish Kumar’s coming together with Lalu Prasad Yadav in Bihar ever thought of?”

He virtually ruled out any support to the BJP, saying that there was only one percent likelihood of that. “I am leaving one per cent crack open.” Omar, however, maintained that he would not be approaching anyone. “But that does not stop anyone from approaching me,” he said.

While Karan Singh reacting to the NC offer said, “Nothing surprises me in politics,” National Conference’s Junaid Mattu told NDTV, “Mufti Mohammed Sayeed in almost every rally said they were demanding votes as the PDP is the only force to keep BJP at bay. A lot of people are talking about PDP softening up to the BJP. They should not be able to say we had no other option.”

Apart from the possible NC-BJP and NC-PDP combinations, another scenario that could crop up is if the PDP formed a government with the Congress and other Independents. However PDP’s Vikramaditya Singh ruled that out when he told NDTV, “Clearly Congress and NC have been given mandate to sit in opposition.”

That leaves Jammu and Kashmir with another, and a more feasible scenario which is a tie-up between the PDP and the BJP.

As argued by Firstpost editor Sandipan Sharma, it could be the only way to bridge the Jammu vs Kashmir divide created by the results.But the alliance would not be an easy one. “The PDP has its own problems. Modi had been acerbic in his attack on the Papa-Daughter and Papa-Son sarkars of the past. For Mufti Mohammed Sayeed and Mehbooba Mufti to accept the support of the BJP will be a huge compromise, especially when the Congress appears to be the more convenient ally. But Mufti has been part of the BJP Parivar once. In the VP Singh government of 1989, supported by the BJP and the Left, Mufti was the home minister. So, they have had a history of working together in the past.”

However, not everyone thinks that it may be a good idea. Mani Shankar Aiyar told Headlines Today, “Both the parties represent different regions but they are not compatible with each other. They both speak different languages and do not share the same aspirations. They can come together for opportunistic reasons.”

“I cannot see how oil and water (BJP+PDP) can be mixed. They are fundamentally opposed to almost everything. If they go together, the first thing that will happen is the diminishing of support for BJP in Jammu and PDP in Kashmir,” Aiyar said.

It is not just the ideological differences of the BJP and the PDP that would pose a problem. The fact that Jammu and Kashmir have voted for completely different reasons would also create trouble.

“People in Kashmir voted in large numbers to thwart the BJP. People in Kashmir will find it very insulting if the PDP allies with BJP. If PDP allies with BJP it will be a political suicide for both the aprties,” senior journalist Gowhar Geelani told Headlines Today.

While PDP’s Nayeema Mahjoor agreed it would be a poison pill, she told NDTV, “It is a poison pill if we see it from the recent perspective. But we have to see their and our own agenda. We would have to work something out.”

Meanwhile, BJP spokesperson Sudhanshu Mittal told _Headlines Toda_y, “It is a mandate in Jammu for the BJP and the mandate in Kashmir Valley is for PDP. We have to keep in mind that BJP has got the largest vote share and PDP got the largest number of seats. Every time there is fractured mandate it is not right to put the entire polity on the dock.”

“If either BJP or PDP is kept out of the government the regional imbalance in the government will be stark,” he added.