J&K poll results 2014: Omar's game seems to be over, PDP may be spoilt for choice

The 40-day period of chilla kalan — harsh cold — began in Kashmir on Sunday with a slightly warm day. The weather had an unusual effect on chief minister Omar Abdullah, who suddenly started radiating warmth towards the BJP. Abdullah tweeted Atal Behari Vajpayee should have got the Bharat Ratna long ago. He was quick to deny he was eyeing a post-poll alliance with the BJP, but it was clear that Abdullah had started flirting with the BJP on the eve of results of the Assembly polls with the hope of being the king maker, if not the king. [caption id=“attachment_2002351” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Representational image. PTI[/caption] Omar’s party is likely to be neither. Exit polls conducted by several agencies suggest his National Conference (NC) would win just 10-12 seats in the 87-member Assembly. The PDP is likely to emerge the single-largest party with around 35 seats; the BJP is expected to be the next with around 25 seats. Omar is hoping that in the unlikely event of the BJP emerging as the front-runner, an opportunistic alliance would help him retain some of his clout in the Valley. But Omar’s game seems to be over, considering the various permutations and combinations after the results on Tuesday. 1) PDP wins 35-40 seats: This may be difficult but not impossible since exit polls are predicting Mehbooba’s party is within striking distance of Mission 44. If this happens, the PDP will form the next government with the support of independent candidates. The Congress may not be averse to supporting the new government from outside since it will help the party keep the BJP out of power in the state and rob the Narendra Modi government of an ally at the national level. 2) BJP wins 25-30 seats: The BJP had entered the fray with the hope of cracking Mission 44, but soon it realised its expectations were not realistic since it was not getting any support from voters in the Valley. So, the party reconsidered its strategy in the finals phase of the poll and concentrated its energy on winning as many seats as possible in Jammu, Leh and Ladakh. Its original mission got renamed internally as Mission 25. The BJP’s chances of edging past the PDP look slim but if it manages to achieve the impossible — this is likely only if the BJP does exceptionally well in the Valley — it will still struggle to form the next government. The Congress is not going to support the BJP. If the BJP doesn’t win more than 30 seats, even Omar’s party will not be able to help the BJP reach the halfway mark. The BJP will have to rely on independents and others for a stable government, but their numbers are not going to be very high in this Assembly. 3) PDP wins 35 seats: Mehbooba Mufti and her father would be spoilt for choice if they need the support of just 10-12 MLAs to form the government. It will then have the option of choosing between the Congress and the BJP. Though the PDP and the Congress appear more natural allies — they have run a coalition government in the past too — the next chief minister may prefer the BJP’s support. The Muftis have argued many times in the past — most recently in March — that a government benefits by keeping the party running the Central government on its right side. Their statement was seen as a hint towards a possible alliance with the BJP. Apart from being the more pragmatic alliance, a BJP-PDP government would also be the true representative of the entire state. The PDP is unlikely to win too many seats in the Jammu region and the BJP will draw a blank in the Valley. Only a BJP-PDP alliance would be in a position to bridge this divide. An editorial in today’s Rising Kashmir makes a compelling case for a BJP-PDP government: The question posed by many thinkers now is that if warring Pakistan and India can talk, why not PDP and BJP. The BJP has softened its stand on various sensitive issues. Take, for instance, the question of a Hindu chief minister. National General Secretary BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s close aide Ram Madhav recently said in Srinagar that the Hindu chief minister issue was not raked up by the BJP but by a Congress leader of the state. Home Minister Rajnath Singh went a step ahead, saying that BJP (if voted to power) will repeal AFSPA from the state. The party is no more talking about abrogation of Article 370. What worked in favour of the Congress in Jammu till Sunday was that it was seen as a party that would form the government. Now with the BJP’s star in ascendancy, it makes better choice to vote for it even for those who are not ideologically committed to it. Hence both PDP and BJP will represent the regional aspirations of their electorate under the all-encompassing and inclusive leadership of Mufti Sayeed. Let the state experiment with this formation and see how it works. The BJP will not mind supporting the PDP at all. If it gets the chance to run the government, the BJP will treat it as an opportunity to dispel some of the fears it generates in the Valley. Also, PDP’s endorsement of the BJP will help it silence critics who call it a pariah for parties that represent Muslim voters. The PDP may, of course, be wary of seeking the support of a party that is seen with a lot of distrust in the Valley, especially because of its stand on contentious issues like Article 370. Also, a lot of voters in Kashmir claimed they came out to vote only to keep the BJP out of the state. So, the PDP will think twice before cosying up to the BJP, more so because its leaders would know that the Congress is already in their back pocket.