JD(U) faces rout in Bihar minus BJP: survey

The Bihar BJP leaders may have substantive reason on the ground to be on the counter offensive against Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. The ruling alliance partners in Bihar have been in a bitter face-off ever since the JD(U) leader made his opposition to Narendra Modi as the NDA’s prime minister candidate unequivocal. A survey done by pollster GVL Narshimha Rao, considered close to the Gujarat chief minister, presents a rather buoyant picture for the BJP should the JD(U) exit from the NDA and go it alone in the next parliamentary polls. It forecasts a gloomy scenario for Nitish Kumar if he contests on his own but suggests he would be better off if he ties up with the Congress. The survey says the Muslim vote—it constitutes about 16 percent of electorate—may not go entirely to the JD(U) in the parliamentary polls. A sizeable portion of the votes could go to the Congress and Lalu Prasad’s RJD if there is strategic voting against the BJP.[caption id=“attachment_746359” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. Image courtesy PIB[/caption] Though there is a temporary lull in the verbal battle between the BJP and the JD(U), a good number of leaders in both parties believe that the relationship has reached a point of no return. Bihar’s Deputy Chief Minister Sushil Modi, who shared a cordial relationship with Nitish and cooperated with him for the last seven years, is now going with the majority sentiment in the party’s state unit. Yesterday, he openly batted for Narendra Modi, even reminding people of his OBC credentials. “India’s next prime minister should be from the backward classes. Gujarat’s Chief Minister Narendra Modi has never talked about his background to seek votes. But we are aware that he doesn’t come from a privileged background. He overcame poverty to kick-start his political career and has now reached great heights,” Sushil Modi said. Like Nitish, the BJP is working on various social combinations to be in the state of preparedness if the break-up eventually happens. Though Narshimha Rao says he conducted his survey independent of the party but it is certain to be shared with senior leaders. The brief of the survey was this: What would be the outcome of Lok Sabha election in Bihar if the elections were to be held with the NDA (BJP-JDU combine) intact? What would be the scene if they parted ways and fought elections separately? The survey involved a “representative cross-sectional sample” of 2,400 voters in 10 parliamentary constituencies of Bihar and has a four percent margin of error. It was published on LensOnNews.com, where Rao is Consulting Editor. The respondents in the survey, he says, were queried on three situations. Scenario 1: NDA is united, No change in alliance In the event of NDA going to Lok Sabha polls intact and the RJD/LJP mounting a combined challenge as they did in 2009, the NDA is expected to slightly improve its performance by winning 33 of the 40 seats against 32 seats in 2009. Out of these 33 seats, the BJP’s lone tally is projected to be 13 as the BJP contests only 15 of the 40 seats in the state as per its arrangement with the JD(U). In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, BJP had won 12 seats. He predicts that the vote share of the NDA would improve by three percentage points from 2009, but there is no significant increase in terms of seats tally for the NDA. Scenario 2: NDA splits, other alliances remain unchanged Voters were asked as to which party they would vote for if the JD(U) breaks away from the BJP on account of projection of Narendra Modi as the prime ministerial candidate. Significantly, the BJP is projected to get as much as 31 percent of the popular vote, while the JD(U) would secure only 15 percent. In this scenario, the BJP alone is projected to win a whopping tally of 29 of the 40 seats in the state, while the JD(U) would win only two seats and the RJD/LJP combine four seats. “The survey findings clearly show that for the people of Bihar, the BJP is the clear favourite in Lok Sabha polls. And, surprisingly, Congress’s vote share is expected to increase to 16 per cent (with Muslims support) though the party is expected to win only three seats against the three seats it had won in 2009 polls. In this scenario, the two major regional parties namely, the JD(U) and the RJD are likely to incur vote losses,” adds Rao. Scenario 3: BJP fights separately, JD(U)-Congress fight together The survey claims that even in this scenario, the BJP is projected to win a substantial tally of 19 of the 40 seats on its own in the state, while the JD(U)-Congress combine is projected to win 16 seats. Rao says assuming that the JD(U) contests 25 seats in alliance with the Congress, it would win only 10 seats on its own. RJD/LJP combine is projected to win three seats. But the BJP leadership, for now, is not inclined to take a decision on announcement of Modi’s name as the prime minister candidate.