Jayalalithaa's death and lack of alternatives makes for stormy succession battle in Tamil Nadu

Once Tamil Nadu recovers from the shock of J Jayalalithaa’s (her name is sometimes spelled Jayalalitha) death, at the age of 68, considered a bit young for political leaders, the debate would gradually shift to the future of the state and its politics. Once the mourning ends, crystal gazers would look to predict the future of her party and the nature of Jayalalithaa’s legacy. Predicting the future is difficult. But as the saying goes, if you want to predict the future, look at the past — it is sometimes a ticking time bomb. And in this context, the story of Ram and Janaki could be a good starting point. Three decades ago, when AIADMK founder and the then TN chief minister MG Ramachandran died after a prolonged illness, some of his supporters elected his wife Janaki Ramachandran, a former actor, as his heir to the throne. Soon, the party split into two and into an abyss; Jayalalithaa walked out of the party; Janaki’s government was dismissed by the Centre; and in the ensuing state Assembly polls, DMK returned to power. [caption id=“attachment_3142474” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  AIADMK has no clearly defined political successor to Jayalalithaa. PTI file image[/caption] AIADMK is poised at a similar tipping point after Jayalalithaa’s death. But there is one major difference: Back in 1988, Jayalalithaa was widely considered MGR’s political heir. Though Janaki became the CM — primarily because of backroom intrigues — the cadres were solidly behind Jayalalithaa, a belief that was reinforced by subsequent elections and Janaki’s meek capitulation. But today’s AIADMK has no clearly defined political successor, nobody to even step into one of the departed leader’s famed collection of footwear. Her party is still defined by the image of the leader sitting on her throne after being sworn in, in a green saree, and her ministers prostrating in front of her. Jayalalithaa was AIADMK, AIADMK was Jayalalithaa. Every party that has a large number of claimants to the leader’s legacy generally goes through a painful succession battle. Though it hurts the organisation in the interim, its long-term consequences are generally beneficial for the party: It separates the pretenders from the real contender. After her demise, AIADMK quietly chose O Panneerselvam as her successor. But instead of a seamless transfer of power as a sign of his acceptability, it is a symbol of of fear and instability within the party, of an uncertain future without a charismatic successor. The general consensus within the party is that Panneerselvam is to Sasikala Natarajan what Janaki was to the then speaker of the Tamil Nadu Assembly, PH Pandian: Just the face, not the soul of the party. As the Indian Express points out, Sasikala would now control the party from Jayalalithaa’s Poes Garden residence. Having multiple centres of power in a party, as the recent drama in Samajwadi Party has shown, is always a delicate equilibrium. The future of AIADMK would depend on how long the various stakeholders of Jayalalithaa’s legacy continue to work in tandem, without trying to replace her as the supreme leader. Sasikala was with Jayalalithaa for 30 years. She controlled everything around the departed leader and almost became indispensable. Though she was considered the source of Jayalalithaa’s problems in the 90s that led to her incarceration in cases of corruption and was expelled twice, she always managed to return to the former CM’s side. After Jayalalithaa’s death, she would remain a formidable force, perhaps even grow in stature. The party’s future would depend on how well she is able to control her ambition and power. In the May 2016 elections to the TN Assembly, it became apparent that AIADMK’s popularity was sliding. The party won the election with a comfortable majority, but the rival DMK alliance made major gains. With Stalin having succeeded his father as DMK leader, a mid-term poll without Jayalalithaa to lead the party could be disastrous for the AIADMK. (Stalin needs just a few MLAs to defect and topple the government). So, it has no option but to bury personal ambitions and remain united. But human behaviour is unpredictable — ambition, egos and powerlust could lead to unintended consequences. BJP would be eyeing the evolving situation with great interest. As the party in power at the Centre, it has the power to control the narrative through its politics and the office of the governor. In fact, an insecure and unstable AIADMK would suit the BJP since it would be able to control it better. And, if the part cracks under its own contradictions, egos and ambitions, both Amit Shah and Stalin would be waiting to step into the vacuum. Tamil Nadu could be the next big theatre of the drama of Indian politics.