It's not 'who' but 'whether' for the BJP

The BJP doesn’t seem to be in a mood to oblige its biggest ally in the NDA, the Janata Dal (U), in a hurry on the contentious issue of leadership. It’s all set to maintain party president Rajnath Singh’s position that a decision on the prime ministerial candidate would be taken at an appropriate time. Incidentally, the BJP’s internal position is no different from its official position. The party leadership is undecided and divided over the issue of projecting Modi for the top job and there is some serious thinking whether the party should name a candidate before the polls at all. As of now they are not sure how things are going to shape up as elections draw closer. The timing of elections and Congress’s counter tactic could also influence the decision. [caption id=“attachment_695710” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  BJP President Rajnath Singh and Gujarat CM Narendra Modi. PTI[/caption] So far Rajnath Singh has given a good vent to the overwhelming endorsement of the party cadre to project Modi as the leader. The party president has shown all those gestures to Modi - from felicitating him like a hero to giving him primacy in all party forums to inducting his nominee Amit Shah as party general secretary - that is appropriate. He, however, has been candid in saying that even as he was party president he could not take a final call on who should be declared the PM candidate. Sources said that’s the factual position he is stating. The question on “whether” to name PM challenger in the run up to the polls is gradually gaining greater currency than “who” should be that person. If the BJP finally decides not to name the leader, it would be for the first time when it would do so. Sources said though there is no denying that Modi had the best credentials to be in the leadership position it might not be politically prudent to declare him so. That’s a gamble the party leadership is not prepared yet to take. Also once he is declared a PM candidate, the party can’t retract from that position if that comes as a hindrance in hunting for new allies in the post-poll situation. The party may ultimately like to be in a position where it has little room for maneuverability. The BJP’s internal dynamics is also coming into the play as there could be two other potential candidates, Sushma Swaraj and Rajnath Singh, the former by virtue of being Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha and Rajnath by virtue of heading the victorious party. Leader of Opposition in Rajya Sabha Arun Jaitley has his own set of admirers within and outside of the party and then the party patriarch LK Advani has not said no. The remarks made by Jaitley, whose proximity to Modi is well-known, at the office-bearers meeting are significant. Though the central theme of his address was what kind of counter strategy the BJP should adopt humble the Congress, he said the latter should not get a chance to polarize votes. By implication, this meant that such a situation could arise if the BJP fielded Modi as the prime ministerial candidate. The strategists in the main opposition party don’t want a situation where all the Congress follies and misrule of past nine years, including those of corruption and price rise, are sidetracked by a single issue. Also, if the elections take place in a highly polarized situation then there is a possibility that the minorities, particularly the Muslims, may favour Congress for the parliamentary elections in place of regional parties like the SP, the BSP and the JD(S). A division in Muslim votes gives greater hopes to BJP. Nitish Kumar’s rather tough position on Narendra Modi is a sign of worry. The BJP though is working on a contingency plan should the JD(U) walk out of the alliance in Bihar on one pretext or another. Nitish has been stressing that the BJP should consult NDA partners to decide on the leader. He had made his position clear in an interview to Economic Times, “NDA should declare its candidate in advance. This leader should be acceptable to every constituent of the alliance. To me, the leader of the coalition should have secular credentials. It should be someone who has absolute faith in democratic values. In a multi-religious and multi-lingual country like ours, the leader should not have rough edges in his personality. An alliance can win the confidence of the people only if the leader is seen as accommodating.” The BJP, which would be looking for NDA plus, is in no particular hurry to let Nitish go, at least at this stage. Most Bihar BJP leaders claim that their party may loose power in the state but it would not loose ground in parliamentary elections, particularly because Nitish is losing ground in his second term in office but that put the BJP into a “NDA Minus” situation. But then there is a strong opinion within the BJP that by projecting Modi and making the poll presidential, the BJP would attract incremental votes. Their assessment is that there is huge support for Modi in different parts of the country and it is only his name that would push such voters in various segments of society, particularly the middle class and youth, to come out and vote for the BJP.