It’s arrogance combined with stupidity for Congress

The Manmohan Singh government has in recent months scored many embarrassing self-goals on the policy and political fronts. It flip-flopped on raising petrol prices; in April, it belligerently opposed the Lokpal Bill, but by August, it had acquiesced shame-facedly; it then vacillated on the issues of the inclusion of the prime minister and of group C and D employees in the final draft of the Lokpal Bill that will be presented to Parliament; and most recently, it unveiled its retail FDI policy with borderline arrogance, only to climb down as, first, the opposition and, then, its own ally in the shape of Mamata Banerjee and the Trinamool Congress, howled in protest against the proposed plans. What’s common to all these fiascos is the amazing confidence in the Congress’ first steps, as if the party’s leaders were absolutely certain that their opinion — and will — would prevail. Then came the rumours of a climbdown, greeted with instant denial. Then came the climb-down or roll-back which in every case has left them red-faced. [caption id=“attachment_148210” align=“alignleft” width=“380” caption=“Why did the Congress believe it had the support of the TMC on the FDI in retail issue?”]  [/caption] One would presume that Congress leaders know simple arithmetic, and would have done their sums before they made any major announcement – and that the answers suggest that they would be able to carry the day. It’s increasingly apparent that arithmetic is their Achilles’ heel. Floor management has never been as difficult as it is today. In the Lok Sabha, there are only two parties (the Congress and the BJP) with over 22 seats. There are eight parties with between 10 and 22 seats. There are another 10 parties who have between three and 9 seats each. Finally, there are 19 parties with either one seat or two seats. In the Rajya Sabha, things are worse. There are four parties that have between 13 and 70 seats. There are 10 parties that have more than four seats but less than 9 seats. Finally, there are 14 parties that have 1, 2, 3 or 4 seats each. The UPA stays in power thanks to the support of parties such as the Trinamool Congress; the Congress, with only 207 members in the Lok Sabha, needs the support of a minimum of 65 members to carry any proposal – and that’s not easy. On the retail FDI issue, for example, when it lost the support of the TMC (18 members), it needs another 36 votes to push the vote through (unless, of course, the Trinamool abstained and does not vote against the proposal). In the Rajya Sabha, where the Congress has only 70 seats (out of 241), things are even more difficult. Which is why one can’t make sense of the recent decisions of the Congress leaders. Where on earth did they think the numbers would come from? The question needn’t be answered if they believed that the TMC would support the FDI bill – which they haven’t. So why did the Congress believe it had the support of the TMC? Did its leaders talk to Mamata’s minions? Did they even discuss the issue before making the announcement? On every issue, there will be opposing views – and not just from the opposition. The UPA’s constituents will always have ‘regional’ issues that might be in conflict with the ‘central’ plans – because parties such as the DMK, the TMC and the NCP, for example derive their strengths from small geographies where the compulsions of provincial politics might force them to take a stand against a Congress position. The only way out for the Congress to project itself as a party that is decisive is to be seen to be pushing things through. For that to happen, there isn’t an easy, simple solution; there’s only the painful route, which they have avoided: negotiations. On every single issue, the Congress needs to remember that it does not run the government, a coalition does. The Congress will have to sell its philosophy to its ‘partners’ and convince them of the merits of each and every proposal. Failing to do this makes the task even harder: for it then has to catch the ‘parties’ with one or two members each and negotiate with each one. The Congress needs to remember that the arithmetic is all-important – to pass any proposal in the Lok Sabha, it needs the support of 272 members. Get this number right and then worry about the rest. Get this number wrong, as it has done with the FDI policy, and all it gets is embarrassment.