It's an AAP, Arvind Kejriwal tsunami: What all the Delhi 2015 exit polls say

He's spent almost a whole year apologising for quitting as the Delhi chief minister after 49 days, and if exit polls are to be believed, a majority of the Delhi electorate is willing to give AAP and its chief ministerial candidate Arvind Kejriwal a second chance at governing the national capital.

Every exit poll conducted post-polls have predicted that the AAP will win with a majority. Just one of them predicted a hung Assembly, with neither the BJP nor AAP able to form the government without support.

Here's the seat share projection across exit polls conducted today and how the parties did in the 2013 poll:

While the Axis exit poll was the most optimistic about the AAP's success, predicting that the party would win 53 seats in the 70-seat Assembly, even the most conservative estimate predicted the AAP winning 31 seats which is still better than its stunning debut performance in the last Delhi polls.

The party won 28 seats in the 2013 Assembly election and formed the government with support from the Congress.

Kejriwal is expected to lead the AAP to victory. PTI image

Kejriwal is expected to lead the AAP to victory. PTI image

The exit poll by Today's Chanakya, which largely got the Delhi 2013 election outcome correct, predicted that the AAP would win 48 seats, BJP 22 seats, and the Congress wouldn't win a single seat. It also cautioned the outcome for the BJP and AAP could vary by up to 6 seats.

AAP's Yogendra Yadav, a former psephologist, said he believed the party would end up winning a two-third majority in the assembly.

"We are ahead but by a much bigger margin (than what the exit polls say). My sense is that we are headed for a two-third majority. We are looking at 50 plus seats," Yadav told CNN-IBN.

Yadav credited the AAP's 'solid organisational work' for what is expected to be the party's showing.

However, speaking on another debate, Yadav cautioned that it may be premature to celebrate.

"It's only exit polls and it isn't the final result. And we can't write off Modi," he said.

Yadav claimed that the BJP was perceived to have been running away from the election and it had proved to be its undoing.

"There have been a series of negativities from the BJP...BJP forgot the lesson of its own. We ran a positive campaign and they kept attacking us," Yadav said.

The exit polls also predict a sharp rise in the vote share for the AAP in this election. Here's how the parties did in 2013:

The ABP Nielsen poll predicts the AAP winning 41 per of the vote share while the BJP is expected to win 37 percent. The Congress is down to 15 percent. The India Today - Cicero Exit poll has predicted the AAP will finish with 42 percent of the voteshare, BJP with 36 percent, and Congress with 15 percent. The C-Voter survey predicted a 43 percent vote share for the AAP, 40 percent for the BJP, and 11 percent for the Congress.

There was also one exit poll that ran contrary to every other one. The Datamineria exit poll predicted a hung Assembly with 35 seats for the BJP, 31 for AAP and 4 for the Congress.

It's perhaps the exit poll we can expect the BJP's chief ministerial candidate to tout the most as she waits for the results to be declared on 10 February.

Bedi put up a brave face as the first set of exit poll results came in and rejecting it thanked the BJP for reposing faith in her.

"I am sure the results would change if the surveys take into account voting post 3 PM. They are incomplete as the turn out from 3 PM to 6 PM has not been included. Then the verdict may go in BJP's favour," she said.

The former IPS official also said that she would take 'full responsibility' if the party lost.

Others like party spokesperson Sambit Patra were equally quick to dismiss the exit polls. But they were a little less optimistic than Bedi.

"The party will have to do some introspection," Patra said on a debate on Headlines Today.


Updated Date: Feb 08, 2015 08:40 AM

Also See