Is Jagan all hype? Seemandhra shocker for YSR Cong before counting

The Telugu Desam Party has triumphed while the fledgling YSR Congress of YS Jaganmohan Reddy is humbled in the municipal and zilla parishad elections in Seemandhra region. What does this indicate? A lot, if you extrapolate from this result the outcome of the assembly and Lok Sabha polls. While it is clear that the TRS and the Congress are engaged in a neck and neck race in Telangana, Jagan Reddy has apparently failed to perform in keeping with the hype and hoopla created by his party. The results have thrown up a pattern in the elections of municipalities, mandal parishads, and zilla parishads that went to polls on 30 March and 7 April respectively. [caption id=“attachment_1525049” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] YSR Congress leader Jagan Mohan Reddy. Reuters[/caption] No election is an indicator of trend for the other. For instance, the Congress scraped through 156 Assembly seats in 2009 in Andhra Pradesh, while it romped home with a thumping 33 out of 42 seats in the Lok Sabha in a simultaneous election. But there’s reason for the Jaganmohan Reddy to get sleepless nights. The uniformity in the voters’ choice is so palpable in Seemaandhra region that if these elections, which were held on party symbols, are any indication, the TDP’s returning to power in Andhra Pradesh is almost certain. Already the TDP supremo N Chandrababu Naidu announced on Tuesday night that he would ensure that all the promises made by his party in the manifesto, including the waiver of farm loans, would be implemented in their letter and spirit. It was a 10-year-long arduous journey for the party, which is now standing at the threshold of power in the state. The TDP has won 62 municipalities, five municipal corporations, and nine zilla parishads and the YSR Congress managed to bag just 17 towns, two corporations, and four zilla parishads, while the Congress was decimated completely. In Telangana, the Congress did well in municipalities bagging 21, leaving the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) behind, which won a niggardly eight. The TRS put up a great show in zilla parishads winning three. The TDP bagged one zilla parishad in Telangana and three municipalities too. Several urban local bodies threw up hung councils too in both regions of Andhra Pradesh which will be bifurcated into two states in just a fortnight from now. It is almost a sweep for the TDP in the north coastal Andhra, Godavari and Krishna districts, while it’s a keenly fought battle between the TDP and the YSR Congress from Guntur to down south. However, winning margins apart, the TDP posted an impressive victory in most districts. It has already begun gloating about what is in store for it in the electronic voting machines – the mouthwatering victory – to be opened on 16 May. One need not be too skeptical about the election result, for Chandrababu Naidu’s confidantes like CM Ramesh and Kambhampati Rammohan Rao, have asserted that the writing on the wall is too clear to ignore or ‘act blind’. The YSR Congress leaders have fallen silent on knowing the result of the ULBs and PR institutions. Urban and rural populace has espoused similar voting behavior. Though it sounds so banal to go by the argument that several other factors that have crept into the election process, the hopefuls of a YSR Congress’ victory in Seemandhra need not be junked. They only have slid from a position of strength in terms of confidence to a week-kneed situation with expressing hope against hope. The numerous factors that formed the sieve to filter the popular mindset in the local body elections may not retain the micro-level political perforations. The holes might have widened, claim the YSR Congress supporters. Interestingly, the reasons being touted by them for the reversal of the fortunes of the TDP are being described as the accelerators for the combine’s continuance of winning streak by the opposite camp. 1. The TDP-BJP tie-up was just on the cards before the local elections and the deal was not frozen by then. 2. Minority vote hasn’t got consolidated as much as it did against the pre-poll alliance between the TDP and the BJP 3. Pawan Kalyan, who had dabbled with the idea of rubbing shoulders with just the BJP, came out in the open and threw his weight behind the two parties and addressed public meetings along with Narendra Modi and Naidu. 4. Chandrababu Naidu’s Backward Class mantra and anointing a BC leader as chief minister candidate in Telangana and his last minute decision to reserve two deputy chief minister posts – one for BCs and one for Kapus – too has a role in influencing the poll patterns. 5. Jagan’s decision to field a large number of Kapus in the electoral fray has divided the Kapu vote. 6. The vote transfer between the TDP and BJP wherever required and some TDP leaders stoking rebellion and getting suspended are two issues that may well be factored in as positive or negative influencers. 7. Whether the large-scale migration of top Congress leaders, largely ministers in the erstwhile Congress government, into the Telugu Desam Party is a booster dose or a poison is another interesting issue that has its impact on the polling pattern. 8. Change of strategy by Jagan just before announcing candidates and focusing on campaign by his sister Sharmila, his mother YS Vijayamma and Jagan himself in the last 10 days will become an indicator on which way they voters swung. What has paid Naidu off, for sure, is that he has kept all the aspirants of the TDP guessing about the party tickets for the assembly and Lok Sabha seats and asked all of them to work for the party’s victory in the elections to civic and PR bodies. Jagan, however, announced the nominees for assembly and Lok Sabha seats long ago, who “saved for a rainy day” instead of expending lavishly for the party in the local body polls. But, as the political haze is getting cleared in Seemandhra, Jagan can only pin hopes on his luck in the make-or-break elections for his party.