Is BJP running scared in Chhattisgarh?

How  things change! The hoarding tells the story. The BJP came up with a huge hoarding barely a 100 metres from Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Raman Singh’s official residence soon after the elections were announced. Phir Raman, Phir Kamal (Again Raman, again BJP) went its simple baseline, and the man himself conveyed its essence with a big, confident smile. The hoarding announced the self-belief of a party and the man who has ruled Chhattisgarh for ten years. Raman was the one-man army set to make mincemeat of his opposition once again. [caption id=“attachment_1234499” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Raman Singh. AFP image[/caption] Many weeks later, the hoarding has changed. Narendra Modi occupies as big a space as Raman on it. It is easy to read meanings into the change. The party no more thinks Raman is invincible and is less certain of his success than it was earlier. Modi had to be brought in as a force multiplier. His whirlwind election campaign in the last few days only reinforces the perception that things are not going right for the party. What drove home the message? Well, the first phase of elections. Eighteen seats, including 12 from bellwether Bastar, went for votes on November 11 and the huge turnout has left the party jittery. Eight of them returned figures of over 80%. This includes Rajnandgaon (81.95%) where Raman Singh is pitted against Alka Mudliyar, the widow of the slain ex-MLA Uday Mudliyar. It also included Kondagaon (83.98%) where Sonia Gandhi had addressed her solitary meeting in this phase. The meaning of the heavy turnout was explained by both the parties on the expected lines – the Congress said it was a vote for the change while the BJP assured it was for continuance. However, it is clear that the ruling party, which has more at stake in the elections, is in a state of uncertainty. The cliché that Bastar decides the government in Raipur had been oversold in the media. But it also plays heavy on the minds of parties here. The BJP had to be doubly careful about the second phase. The first phase polls also have exposed the hidden fault lines within the party. Inasmuch the party talked about the infights in the Congress camp, all was never well in its own. The pundits and observers in the state capital were aware of the keen tug of war that went on at the time of the ticket distribution. Raman Singh as a third time chief minister was never a matter of debate or dispute within the party. He was projected as the face of the party after a considered consensus. Yet the differences crept in. The organisation was unanimous in making Raman Singh the chief minister. The latter wanted a support base of his own which the party resented and resisted. The organization had taken a serious note of discontentment amongst the party workers at the grassroots level during its pre-poll surveys. “Why should we work when we have no say in the governance” was the common refrain. The government had failed to match the expectations at the this level. The list that came out was a mix of both camps. Raigarh, for example, where Raman Singh fought till the last day of nomination for his candidate – first Vijay Agarwal and later Dr Prakash Mishra, finally went to Roshan Agarwal of the organisation camp. Lailunga and Dharamjaigarh were bagged by Raman Singh camp. Abhishek, son of Raman was billed to make a debut from Kawardh, the home town of the chief minister. The announcement for this seat also was made at the very last moment. The charge sheet prepared against the sitting BJP MLA from this seat had already made him ineligible for consideration. Abhishek’s name was conspicuously missing from the list which saw a municipal ward member as a last minute beneficiary of the nomination. The effect of this was visible on the ground. Wherever the chief minister’s candidates were given tickets, the organisational stalwarts were not amused and made no efforts to mask their displeasure and did not make a mad rush to board the election wagon that moved on nevertheless. Raman Singh was seen hopping constituencies and meetings. He was everywhere. It was Raman versus the Congress. A day of three meetings with Narendra Modi was thrown in but the thin crowd did not enthuse the local managers to go for more. Gadkari was allotted one of the constituencies in Bastar. He did not turn up and nobody actually missed him. The polling percentage analyses changed all that. Panic buttons were pressed. Party and RSS workers and sympathisers fanned out in the state and visible efforts were made to shake up the laggard organisational machinery. Itinerary of star campaigners was revised. Narendra Modi was back in demand. In all, 150 meetings were announced in one go that included a slot for Modi who addressed nine meetings in two days. The advertising strategy also was reworked. The Congress had launched its campaign in the print media on 9th August – much before the notification of the election was made. A daily strip ran on top of the pages of all the newspapers of the state with a new charge everyday in the local lingo rhyming and ending with “halla bol”. The same campaign entered the radio waves later. It was an effective campaign, lighter in tone yet serious in content. The BJP faltered in its response. Till the first phase it stuck to the drab ad with a bass voice asking to vote for Raman Singh with a conch blowing in the background reminding of the Mahabharat serial on TV more than the elections. The post-first-phase revision saw the campaign on radios change priority. The new ad stressed on the party. Raman Singh was just a part of the message. If that was not enough to send out the message that the party had taken over the command, the hoarding at the Shankar Nagar square in Raipur was changed too.